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13
Oct

ORBe

by

I went through a bit of work to create my own new statistic. I should have looked at the advance stats at Basketball Reference a little closer as they have ORB% which is pretty similar to my calculation and really what I was going for. But because I did the legwork and my ORBe is slightly different I may as well post it.

I wanted to look at Offensive Rebounds in a way that accounted for chances rather than just looking Offensive Rebounds per Game. I aimed to estimate the number of chances a player has at an offensive board (this is where Basketball Reference and my method differed) and correlate that with the number of Offensive Rebounds he actual has and get a measure of Offensive Rebounding ability.

The Equation: (Player Offensive Rebounds/Team FG missed)/((player minutes played)/((team minutes)/5))*100

or pORB/(tFGm)/((pMIN/(tMIN/5))*100

Where Team FG Missed tFGM=(tFGA-tFG)

BR calculated their “chances” as tORB + oppDRB so this counts only rebounded balls, where as my ORBe counts all missed shots. ORBe includes shots that hit the top of the backboard and are out of bounds (bad) but also counts shots that go out of bounds off of someone’s hands (good, in my mind this was a valid chance).

I took the top 10 players in ORB per Game in the Western Conference plus Biedrins, Anthony Randolph (best Warrior by ORB/G) and David Lee. Below are the players posted in order of ORB/G rank.

Offensive Rebound efficiency

ORBe of the Western Conference ORB/G leaders + some Warriors

For Marcus Camby and Drew Gooden who played on multiple teams I used team stats of the team they played the most games for. I will have to go back and adjust for playing time percentages. I was surprised to Marc Gasol on this list.

Brendan Haywood DAMN! AR is not looking too bad either. His lower ORB/G is an obvious product of his lower min per game total. Striking how similar he and Jason Thompson’s numbers are.

And now the depressing part … AR is gone and David Lee, for all his rebounding ability does not show too well by ORBe with the lowest percentage on this list (by a full point). Maybe part of that was playing out of position or the style of play and he will improve on the Warriors. I sure hope so. He would have been in the top 15 in ORB/G if he were in the Western Conference last year (ahead of Biedrins and AR) so I think it is fair to compare him to this group.

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  • http://warriorsandwhatever.com Mike

    Muy intersante. I wonder if there’s a way to factor in the percentage of the team’s shots that a player takes , as someone who is a bigger part of the offense (Lee) will have fewer chances to grab offensive rebounds than someone who isn’t (Haywood). Of course, that assumes that the shooter has a reduced chance of grabbing an offensive rebound, which I’m not necessarily sure is true (but it seems to make intuitive sense outside of a stationary bricked layup situation).

  • Jake

    I should note that Haywood also played for two teams and the team stats I used were for the Wizards in the East, so his numbers may need to be adjusted, but I don’t think the Mavs missed more shots that the Wiz.

    I thought about the issue you brought up too. I think for an outside player taking more shots may hurt their ORBe, but an inside player where you often get to rebound your own miss taking more shots may even improve your ORBe. I will have to think about ways to deal with this. One could just subtract own misses from total chances but that may skew things too much (it would assume that all ORB are from a team mate’s miss).

    Another thing I would be curious to look at would be percent of ORB that directly lead to a bucket ie. tip-in, dunk etc. Those will be more valuable than an ORB that leads to a new shot clock and a new set which may or may not lead to a score. Not sure that the info is out there to easily look at this though.