4
20
Feb

What’s To Come

by

With the season resuming on Tuesday, attention now turns to the 27 games that the Warriors have remaining on the schedule. Here’s a quick look ahead, with home games shaded in blue and road games in yellow (my prediction is in the final column):

Date Home/Away Opponent Opp Record Opp Win % Warriors B2B? Opponent B2B? Prediction
2/22/11 Home Celtics 40-14 74.1% Win
2/25/11 Home Hawks 34-21 61.8% Loss
2/27/11 Away Timberwolves 13-43 23.2% Win
3/1/11 Away Pacers 24-30 44.4% Win
3/2/11 Away Wizards 15-39 27.8% Yes Win
3/4/11 Away Celtics 40-14 74.1% Loss
3/6/11 Away Sixers 27-29 48.2% Loss
3/8/11 Away Cavaliers 10-46 17.9% Win
3/9/11 Away Nets 17-40 29.8% Yes Loss
3/11/11 Home Magic 36-21 63.2% Loss
3/13/11 Home Timberwolves 13-43 23.2% Win
3/14/11 Away Kings 13-40 24.5% Yes Win
3/16/11 Home Mavericks 40-16 71.4% Yes Win
3/18/11 Away Suns 27-27 50.0% Loss
3/20/11 Away Mavericks 40-16 71.4% Loss
3/21/11 Away Spurs 46-10 82.1% Yes Loss
3/23/11 Away Rockets 26-31 45.6% Win
3/25/11 Home Raptors 15-41 26.8% Win
3/27/11 Home Wizards 15-39 27.8% Win
3/29/11 Away Thunder 35-19 64.8% Win
3/30/11 Away Grizzlies 31-26 54.4% Yes Loss
4/2/11 Home Mavericks 40-16 71.4% Loss
4/5/11 Away Blazers 34-24 58.6% Loss
4/6/11 Home Lakers 38-19 66.7% Yes Yes Loss
4/10/11 Home Kings 13-40 24.5% Win
4/11/11 Away Nuggets 32-25 56.1% Yes Win
4/13/11 Home Blazers 34-24 58.6% Yes Win

A few things stand out. Clearly, the remaining games are road-heavy, which doesn’t sound too great for a team that’s currently 7-18 away from Oracle. But as Feltbot noted the other day, the quality of the opposition isn’t too strong on the upcoming trip (Celtics game excepted, of course).

All in all, the teams the Warriors face the rest of the way have a 49.8% combined winning percentage, with the road opponents at 48.4% and 52% for the home opponents. But the easier road teams are concentrated in the upcoming trip, and after the Kings game on March 14 they play 7 of their final 8 road games against teams that are .500 or better.

There’s one more point that’s worrisome — as Owen notes, the back-to-backs are decidedly against the Warriors in this home stretch. They play 7 more sets, while they only face 3 more opponents who are playing their second in two. That’s not going to make things any easier.

So what will win out? Can the Warriors take advantage of the markedly average level of their competition, or will fatigue overcome a team that already plays their starters too much? Do they have a pre-We-Believe! style run in them?

My best guess? If you add up my prediction column above, you’ll see that I have them going 15-12 the rest of the way to finish right at .500. Will that be enough to make the playoffs? It just might — especially if the Nuggets trade Carmelo for picks, Chris Paul’s knee acts up, the Blazers duct tape finally starts to fall off, and Memphis succumbs to their March schedule. But would I bet on it? Probably not at this point.

Knowing this team, it seems like just about anything is possible — and that the only things that is guaranteed is what we’ve seen throughout this year: a recurring cycle of furious optimism and crushing defeats. The only question is what part of the cycle we’ll end on…

UPDATE: Jake’s predictions for 10-17.

Date Home/Away Opponent Opp Record Opp Win % Warriors B2B? Opponent B2B? Prediction
2/22/11 Home Celtics 40-14 74.1% Loss
2/25/11 Home Hawks 34-21 61.8% Loss
2/27/11 Away Timberwolves 13-43 23.2% Win
3/1/11 Away Pacers 24-30 44.4% Win
3/2/11 Away Wizards 15-39 27.8% Yes Win
3/4/11 Away Celtics 40-14 74.1% Loss
3/6/11 Away Sixers 27-29 48.2% Loss
3/8/11 Away Cavaliers 10-46 17.9% Win
3/9/11 Away Nets 17-40 29.8% Yes Loss
3/11/11 Home Magic 36-21 63.2% Loss
3/13/11 Home Timberwolves 13-43 23.2% Win
3/14/11 Away Kings 13-40 24.5% Yes Win
3/16/11 Home Mavericks 40-16 71.4% Yes Loss
3/18/11 Away Suns 27-27 50.0% Loss
3/20/11 Away Mavericks 40-16 71.4% Loss
3/21/11 Away Spurs 46-10 82.1% Yes Loss
3/23/11 Away Rockets 26-31 45.6% Loss
3/25/11 Home Raptors 15-41 26.8% Win
3/27/11 Home Wizards 15-39 27.8% Win
3/29/11 Away Thunder 35-19 64.8% Loss
3/30/11 Away Grizzlies 31-26 54.4% Yes Loss
4/2/11 Home Mavericks 40-16 71.4% Loss
4/5/11 Away Blazers 34-24 58.6% Loss
4/6/11 Home Lakers 38-19 66.7% Yes Yes Loss
4/10/11 Home Kings 13-40 24.5% Win
4/11/11 Away Nuggets 32-25 56.1% Yes Loss
4/13/11 Home Blazers 34-24 58.6% Yes Win

Posted by in Warriors

  • Jake

    Looking at just game by game I came up with 10-17, which is lower than I would have guessed had I just asked myself what do you think their record will be in the next 27 games. My pessimism stems from a lack of confidence in their ability to win on the road or B2B, coupled with not believing they can beat the Mavs. I would have liked to have said that second to last Denver game is a win after the trade but I still think it is a loss. I reserve the right to change my mind if they show they can win a couple of tough games on the road.

    • http://warriorsandwhatever.com Mike

      Well, after last night I think your predictions seem much more realistic than mine…

  • Jake

    What was your thought on calling a win in the 3/29 game against OK City? I just don’t see that one at all.

    • http://warriorsandwhatever.com Mike

      I like the way they match up against the Thunder — I feel it’s one of the few teams they can really beat up inside. But I’m sure it was definitely a bit optimistic…