Author Archive

3
25
Jun

Trading Biedrins


Marcus Thompson has a Biedrins trade rumor post up. The deal would be Biedrins for Hasheem Thabeet and Jordan Hill.  First wow, those were some amazing busts especially Thabeet.  Even if you thought Thabeet was not the #2 player in the draft (I was in this camp) you could not have thought that he would never be a serviceable back-up defensive center.

I have to admit that at the time of the Biedrins signing I thought it was a great signing.  The right amount of money and the right terms (non-escalating). It was obvious that Baron was a huge part of Andris’s success but I would have never predicted he would become so awful upon the loss of BD.

I have to admit that getting expiring contracts for Biedrins sounds like a great deal.  Get him off the books after 2012 and start over.  My gut reaction was DO IT NOW!!! But after 5 minutes of thinking of it I can see why the Warriors may not want to make that deal.  As MTII points out they don’t have anyone one better to replace him with and he can only improve from his disaster last year. Maybe Jackson thinks he can do something to bring back a bit of the old Beans working out in Oakland during the off season, I don’t know.  I really want him to get better and be the 10-10 guy but I just don’t see it happening.

I would make this trade but it is not a slam dunk no brainer. Or maybe it is and I am over-thinking it. DO IT NOW!!! or maybe next week after mulling it over again.

Photo of a Photo by Rineke Dijkstra

1
17
May

Draft Lottery

Photo by Flickr user markybon used under a Creative Commons License.

 

The Warrior’s have a 0.8% chance at the number one spot thanks to their late season surge, but here’s hoping the NBA is happy to fix the lottery the Warrior’s way and they can at least move into the top 3.

Use this as a lottery open thread if you wish.

 

 

0
20
Mar

Monta Ellis Win vs. Loss

Yesterday I looked at some of David Lee’s stats in wins versus losses.

Today we look at Monta Ellis’s PTS in wins versus loses.  Simply, Monta’s PTS total shows differences in wins and losses that are statistically significant (the notches do not overlap).  Monta scores more points in a Warrior’s win than he does in a loss.  While it is not surprising that this trend is true I did find it somewhat surprising that the difference has a p value<0.05 as none of the things I have looked at so far show statistical significance.

 

 

 

 

 

4
19
Mar

David Lee Wins vs Losses

Since I accuse David Lee of only having good games in Warrior’s losses I thought I would build a little box plot of his total rebounds and points scored in wins versus loses.

Turns out I was probably wrong.  Lee has pretty much the exact same rebounding average in a win as in a loss.  He has slightly more points in a loss but it is not a huge difference (about a point).  Lee is however much more consistent in losses than he is in wins, that can be seen in the more compact boxes.  Look how 10-11 rebounds takes up the entire 50-75% percentile group.  That is pretty damn consistent.  Lee is more likely to have a good rebounding game in a Warriors win (or the Warriors tend to win when Lee has a higher rebounding game) which makes sense.

Nothing earth-shattering but there it is. Maybe I will take a look at some of the other players over the next few days.

On a side note I like the boxplot because there is more information in it than just looking at per game averages home versus away, for example the implied consistency.

UPDATE: In the comments Mike asked for the assists version of this graph.  I don’t think you could have drawn splits that were much similar.

David Lee Assists in wins versus losses

 

0
27
Feb

Preview: Warriors at Timberwolves

Golden State
Warriors

@

Minnesota
Timberwolves

Target Center
2:00pm | CSNBA

Official Game Preview

2010-11 Meetings
November 27, 2010 • Recap
Warriors 104
Timberwolves 94
 
December 14, 2010 • Recap
Timberwolves 99
Warriors 108
 
February 27, 2011 • Recap
Warriors 123
Timberwolves 126
 
March 13, 2011 • Recap
Timberwolves 77
Warriors 100
 

It is already halftime by the time I got this up and Kevin Love has 20 and 11, but the Warriors have a 4 point lead. The Warriors are single digit points away from their full game scoring total against the Hawks.

So how about some keys to the second half:

  • REBOUND.  Already -10 on the rebound front.  They gotta grab a few more boards and stop giving up so many offensive rebounds.  19 total rebounds versus 14 Minnesota Offensive rebounds at the half.
  • Only 7 Warriors have gotten into the game so far versus 11 T-Wolves.  Will the W’s have any gas left in the 4th Quarter.
  • David Lee is having a decent game.  Can he actually have a good game in a win or only when the game is all but over?

 

1
24
Feb

Last Laugh

I have to admit Boom Dizzle getting traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers made my day.  So much for LA Baron.  Hope you enjoyed your half a season with Blake Griffen. It will have been the last time you participated in All-Star Weekend.

 

 

 

3
23
Feb

The Great Trade of 2011

So the Warriors finally got in on the trading action trading Dan Gadzuric and Brandan Wright for Troy Murphy and a 2012 2nd round pick.  Murphy makes $12M this year and will likely never put on a Warrior’s uniform.  If he cannot be flipped for another 2nd round pick he will be cut and land somewhere else as a free agent.  Brandan Wright was not going to receive a qualifying offer this Summer because he would have most likely accepted not being able to find more money on the open market. Wright makes $3.4 million this year.  Gadzuric was not getting much playing time and earns $7.25M this year.  Basically the Warriors bought a 2nd round pick in 2012 for $1.3M and opened up two roster spots if in fact Murphy gets cut. If there is a positive to take away from this, the new owners are willing to buy draft picks rather than sell them.

I would have liked to see the Warrior’s get more for Brandan Wright, but his stock was about as low as it could be.  Hindsight is 20/20 but they really should have moved him this past Summer.  I am happy to move on from the Brandan Wright era and ANOTHER failed 1st round draft pick, but this is bittersweet as the West has opened up a bit with the Williams and Carmelo trades and getting someone who can contribute to the team rather than a contract would have been nice.  However, if the Warriors bring back Jeff Adrien as Rusty Simmons is reporting then it lessens the blow a bit.  Adrien will be more useful than Murphy would be. Who gets the 2nd open roster spot if Murphy is cut? The Jewish Jordan?

I guess I can give up the project I started last night to change all of our “Brandon Wright” tags to “Brandan Wright” tags so that is good news.  Looks like Alex Smith lasted longer.

So anyone looking for more Warrior’s trades besides the slim possibility of moving Murphy for a pick?  I don’t anticipate anything and after seeing the Knicks and the Nets probably overpay in the blockbuster trades I am not confident the Warrior’s can pick up a difference maker without giving up too much.

1
10
Feb

Game #51: Warriors 116, Nuggets 114

Nuggets 114

@

Warriors 116
February 9, 2011 1 2 3 4 T
Nuggets 35 33 24 22 114
Warriors 34 36 30 16 116
  Net -1 3 6 -6 2
  Season Avg -2.9 0.8 -0.4 -0.1 -2.2
  Compare to Season Avg 1.9 2.2 6.4 -5.9 4.2
 Warriors Stats
  FG% 3P% FT% FTA Fouls OReb TReb Assists Steals Blocks Turns POTurns PIPaint FBPoints
Game 51.1% 50% 66.7% 12 21 12 42 30 12 2 14 26 38 29
Season Avg 46.2% 39.2% 76.1% 20.7 22 11.6 40.5 22.5 9 5 14.1 17.5 42.6 18.6
Difference 4.9% 10.8% -9.4% -8.7 -1 0.4 1.5 7.5 3 -3 -0.1 6.5 -4.6 10.4
 Net Comparison
  FG% 3P% FT% FTA Fouls OReb TReb Assists Steals Blocks Turns POTurns PIPaint FBPoints
Net Game -1.9% 8.3% -6.1% -10 -12 0 0 2 1 -1 4 0 -14 4
Net Season Avg -0.6% 3.5% -1.2% -7 -3.6 -1.2 -4.3 -2.2 0.8 0.7 1.2 2 -2.9 -0.8
Net Difference -1.3% 4.8% -4.9% -3 -8.4 1.2 4.3 4.2 0.2 -1.7 2.8 -2 -11.1 4.8

Wow that was a chaotic end to a crappy 4th quarter by both teams. Most of the postgame talk surrounded the lack of a timeout call by George Karl and the lack of a touch by Carmello on the final play of the game that ended in an awkward miss by Nene. That was Nene’s only miss of the game and he finished with 17 points.

QUOTABLE: “It was so weird the way the game ended. I didn’t know what was going on. We were all looking like, ‘What’s going on right now?’ because when Nene shot the ball the horn went off. I didn’t know what was going on. I’m happy he took the shot, a step-back or whatever he was doing, instead of one of their other weapons.”
– Warriors forward Dorell Wright, who finished two assists shy of a triple-double, on the Nuggets not calling a timeout in the final seconds.

On the Warrior’s end, Monta had a game high 37 points including 4-7 from behind the arc. He did finish with a -5 though it felt like the team was playing better when he was out there on the court. Curry on the other hand got into major foul trouble in the 3rd quarter which allowed for some very productive minutes from Reggie Williams. Williams looked like the best player on the court at times with 18 points, 6 assists and 4-4 from 3 point land. Udoh’s stat line is not impressive but he gave some good defensive energy minutes once again and should hurdle Radmanovic on the depth chart soon as the Radman has cooled off in a considerable way. Dorell Wright may have been player of the game with 23 points, 11 rebounds, 8 assists and 0 turnovers, if not for shooting pretty poorly from downtown (4-11). Biedrins had a solid game, at time dominating the boards and David Lee performed well and ended with a good stat line and +/- even if I didn’t notice him all that much during the game.

Rick Berry sat in with Fitz and St. Jean for half of the 3rd Quarter and was his usual feisty self. He called out bad shots, bad whistles, bad defense all within earshot of the benches, but he was right each time. It was a nice treat to have a more critical voice on the broadcast. His best line of the night might have been “How does he live with himself?” when discussing Biedrins’s awful free throw percentage.

Overall a good win after a lousy start and a lousy finish. There was a quarter or so when the Warriors looked flat out dominate and clicking on all cylinders, if you disregard one of their cylinders (Curry) on the bench with foul trouble. TK mentions in his post-game that the Warriors looked better with one of Monta or Curry on the floor then they did with both of them on the floor together. I have to say I agree, but I hope it was a one game aberration and not the doomsday scenario he alludes to. Does anyone else out there in Warrior’s and Whatever land feel that one of the has to go rather than being willing to let one of them go?

Denver Nuggets (30-23)
field goalsrebounds
pos min fgm-a 3pm-a ftm-a +/- off def tot ast pf st to bs ba pts
C. Anthony F 32:25 11-21 2-3 5-7 0 0 4 4 2 1 0 4 2 1 29
K. Martin F 22:57 3-7 0-0 3-3 -4 0 0 0 4 2 1 4 0 0 9
Nene C 31:42 6-7 0-0 5-5 -6 1 5 6 4 0 2 1 1 0 17
A. Afflalo G 36:52 5-11 2-6 0-0 -4 2 4 6 3 1 1 1 0 0 12
T. Lawson G 35:30 3-7 2-3 0-0 -8 1 6 7 6 1 1 3 0 0 8
J. Smith 26:34 7-12 1-5 1-2 +3 0 7 7 6 1 2 1 0 0 16
C. Andersen 15:28 0-1 0-0 0-0 +7 2 2 4 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
A. Harrington 21:06 7-15 2-6 2-5 -5 6 2 8 1 2 1 2 0 1 18
G. Forbes 04:56 1-1 1-1 0-0 +1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 3
A. Carter 12:30 1-1 0-0 0-0 +6 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 2
M. Ely DNP – Coach’s Decision
S. Williams DNP – Coach’s Decision
Total 240 44-83 10-24 16-22 12 30 42 28 9 11 18 3 2 114
53.0% 41.7% 72.7% team rebs: 5 total to: 18
Golden State Warriors (23-28)
field goalsrebounds
pos min fgm-a 3pm-a ftm-a +/- off def tot ast pf st to bs ba pts
D. Wright F 43:11 8-20 4-11 3-4 +5 2 9 11 8 3 4 0 0 2 23
D. Lee F-C 43:45 7-15 0-0 2-3 +4 5 7 12 6 3 2 4 1 0 16
A. Biedrins C 23:59 3-4 0-0 0-0 +5 3 9 12 2 4 2 0 0 0 6
M. Ellis G 42:03 16-30 4-7 1-3 -4 0 2 2 5 2 3 4 0 0 37
S. Curry G 29:19 5-9 1-3 2-2 -2 0 1 1 2 4 0 3 0 0 13
E. Udoh 12:30 0-1 0-0 0-0 +5 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
J. Lin 04:15 0-0 0-0 0-0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
V. Radmanovic 09:11 1-3 1-3 0-0 -4 2 0 2 1 2 0 0 1 0 3
R. Williams 29:11 7-10 4-4 0-0 +5 0 2 2 6 1 1 2 0 1 18
B. Wright 02:36 0-0 0-0 0-0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C. Bell DNP – Coach’s Decision
D. Gadzuric DNP – Coach’s Decision
Total 240 47-92 14-28 8-12 12 30 42 30 21 12 14 2 3 116
51.1% 50.0% 66.7% team rebs: 5 total to: 14

inactive

  • Nuggets: Balkman, Billups
  • Warriors: Amundson, Law

technical fouls

  • Nuggets: Anthony
  • Warriors: –

scoring

  • Lead Changes: 2
  • Times Tied: 6

arena stats

  • Arena: ORACLE Arena, Oakland, CA
  • Officials: #13 Monty McCutchen, #52 Pat Fraher, #58 Josh Tiven
  • Attendance: 18430
  • Duration: 2:2
0
3
Feb

Game #48: Warriors 100, Bucks 94

Bucks 94

@

Warriors 100
February 3, 2011 1 2 3 4 T
Bucks 22 25 26 21 94
Warriors 18 28 26 28 100
  Net -4 3 0 7 6
  Season Avg -2.9 0.8 -0.4 -0.1 -2.2
  Compare to Season Avg -1.1 2.2 0.4 7.1 8.2
 Warriors Stats
  FG% 3P% FT% FTA Fouls OReb TReb Assists Steals Blocks Turns POTurns PIPaint FBPoints
Game 50.6% 50% 76.9% 13 13 8 36 23 7 6 17 12 36 14
Season Avg 46.2% 39.2% 76.1% 20.7 22 11.6 40.5 22.5 9 5 14.1 17.5 42.6 18.6
Difference 4.5% 10.8% 0.8% -7.7 -9 -3.6 -4.5 0.5 -2 1 2.9 -7.5 -6.6 -4.6
 Net Comparison
  FG% 3P% FT% FTA Fouls OReb TReb Assists Steals Blocks Turns POTurns PIPaint FBPoints
Net Game 7.8% 23.9% -6.4% 1 2 -12 -13 -8 -5 5 -3 0 8 2
Net Season Avg -0.6% 3.5% -1.2% -7 -3.6 -1.2 -4.3 -2.2 0.8 0.7 1.2 2 -2.9 -0.8
Net Difference 8.4% 20.4% -5.2% 8 5.6 -10.8 -8.7 -5.8 -5.8 4.3 -4.2 -2 10.9 2.8

A win is a win, but that one was not pretty. Immediately after the game I was pissed but Christian and Steinmetz both convinced me that this was not as bad as it looked. It is a game that last year’s Warriors would have lost trailing at home for as much as they did. Steinmetz argued that the Bucks will do this to teams and although they do not have a ton of wins they play teams quite hard and can make teams look ugly. That being said a game this close at home against a team on the second half of the back to back without one of their best players (Bogut) should not go to the last 11 seconds. The box score was ugly. Monta shot under 50% on high volume shooting (although he had a 0 +/- Ratio so he did not make the team worse </snark>). The Warriors only reached the stripe 13 times, which was one more than the Bucks! Warrior’s lost the rebound battle by 13, gave up 20! OREB and took 13 fewer shots. Curry had 7 turnovers and only 5 assists. I am starting to get really worried about Curry’s turnovers. I know we discussed it here on the blog back in pre-season, but I expected things to get better as the season went along and it may even be getting worse. The pop-psychologist in me says he is having confidence issues. I am still not convinced he is a point guard and if he isn’t one of he or Monta has to go. Maybe throw in Brandan “DNP-Coach’s Decision” Wright. On the bright side Jennings did not score 55 nor did an ex-Warrior beat them on a last minute shot, although Maggette was doing his best to make the latter happen. I like Mbah A Moute’s pro game. I kinda saw it coming as a Pac-10 hoops fan (let’s not talk about the last few years) but I thought it would be as more of a role player than a guy logging 40 minutes.

Milwaukee Bucks (19-29)
field goalsrebounds
pos min fgm-a 3pm-a ftm-a +/- off def tot ast pf st to bs ba pts
C. Maggette F 29:58 8-14 0-1 5-7 -4 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 21
L. Mbah a Moute F 40:46 6-12 0-0 3-3 -1 11 8 19 5 4 2 3 0 1 15
E. Ilyasova F 34:01 10-20 1-2 2-2 -5 5 8 13 2 3 1 3 1 2 23
C. Delfino F-G 44:56 9-22 2-10 0-0 -2 2 6 8 5 1 5 2 0 2 20
B. Jennings G 19:33 1-6 0-1 0-0 +2 0 2 2 6 2 1 2 0 0 2
J. Salmons 21:06 1-5 0-2 0-0 -6 0 2 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 2
L. Sanders 14:04 1-2 0-0 0-0 -8 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 0 2
K. Dooling 28:27 3-9 3-7 0-0 -8 1 1 2 9 2 2 1 0 0 9
G. Temple 07:09 0-1 0-0 0-0 +2 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
E. Boykins DNP – Coach’s Decision
J. Brockman DNP – Coach’s Decision
C. Douglas-Roberts DNP – Coach’s Decision
Total 240 39-91 6-23 10-12 20 29 49 31 15 12 14 1 6 94
42.9% 26.1% 83.3% team rebs: 4 total to: 17
Golden State Warriors (21-27)
field goalsrebounds
pos min fgm-a 3pm-a ftm-a +/- off def tot ast pf st to bs ba pts
D. Wright F 40:51 5-11 4-7 2-2 +8 0 4 4 6 2 2 3 1 0 16
D. Lee F-C 34:42 6-12 0-0 3-4 +2 2 5 7 4 2 1 3 0 0 15
A. Biedrins C 27:31 3-6 0-0 0-0 -2 4 6 10 0 3 1 0 3 0 6
M. Ellis G 43:35 10-22 1-5 3-3 +6 0 5 5 6 1 1 4 0 1 24
S. Curry G 33:30 6-11 2-4 2-2 +4 1 4 5 5 2 1 7 1 0 16
V. Radmanovic 24:02 4-7 2-4 0-0 +9 0 2 2 1 3 1 0 1 0 10
R. Williams 21:05 5-6 3-3 0-2 +6 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 13
E. Udoh 09:04 0-1 0-0 0-0 -1 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
C. Bell 05:39 0-1 0-1 0-0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L. Amundson DNP – Coach’s Decision
D. Gadzuric DNP – Coach’s Decision
B. Wright DNP – Coach’s Decision
Total 240 39-77 12-24 10-13 8 28 36 23 13 7 17 6 1 100
50.6% 50.0% 76.9% team rebs: 6 total to: 17
inactive
  • Bucks: Bogut, Gooden, Redd
  • Warriors: Law, Lin
technical fouls
  • Bucks: –
  • Warriors: –
scoring
  • Lead Changes: 22
  • Times Tied: 9
arena stats
  • Arena: ORACLE Arena, Oakland, CA
  • Officials: #15 Bennett Salvatore, #47 Bennie Adams, #54 Nick Buchert
  • Attendance: 18008
  • Duration: 2:7
2
3
Feb

2011 All-Star Line-up

Once again no Golden State Warriors …

The 2010-2011 West All-Stars

Starters
Kevin Durant
Carmelo Anthony
Kobe Bryant
Chris Paul
Yao Ming (Injured)

Reserves
Tim Duncan
Pau Gasol
Blake Griffin
Manu Ginobili
Dirk Nowitzki
Russell Westbrook
Deron Williams

Kevin Love seems to be the biggest snub here and should get the injury replacement for Yao Ming. Monta isn’t making it unless someone else gets hurt. I have to admit I am slightly surprised by the Blake Griffin choice. He is damn good don’t get me wrong, but it kinda reeks of NBA promoting their next big star before he is really a star. But I guess it is nice to see a new name or two. As good as Duncan has been in his career he does not belong in the 2011 All-Star Game.

Truehoops on the Monta “snub” which I think is dead accurate:

Monta Ellis
Turn off your inner critic for a moment. Speak not of efficiency, nor wins and losses. Take a deep breath. Go to your happy place. Listen to the airy music. And just watch what this guy does: He takes big piles of nothing and turns them into and-1s. He takes your lazy passes and makes them steals and dunks. He takes double teams and splits them. He takes your slow defender and makes him fall over. He takes your outstretched arms, and, little though he is, shoots over them, and hits every time. At least, that’s how it goes in the highlight reel. He’d be fun to watch in Los Angeles. (And Commissioner Stern, think how much cheaper the travel would be, sending a guy who lives a tad farther up the coast.)

All in all I cannot make a strong argument that Monta should have been an All-Star. If he had made the team, I don’t think I would have had a strong argument that he should have been left off though either. It is probably best that he gets a rest.

I have nothing to say about the East except there are a heck of a lot more better players in the West than the East still. See the Truehoop East “snub” list.

The 2010-2011 East All-Stars

Starters
LeBron James
Amare Stoudemire
Dwyane Wade
Derrick Rose
Dwight Howard

Reserves
Ray Allen
Chris Bosh
Kevin Garnett
Al Horford
Joe Johnson
Paul Pierce
Rajon Rondo