David Lee’s elbow is infected (why is Tyson Chandler so dirty?) and will miss two weeks. Can B-Wright make anything of a few more starts? Color me doubtful.
Took awhile, but Guber tweets that the sale is done. Fairly anti-climatic. I imagine it won’t really be until next offseason that we begin to see their “vision” unless a major move is made at the trade deadline.
I know it is really early but 4-1 and the question in my mind is on the head coach wishy-washyness. I really like what I have seen out of Smart so far. The Dubs are playing much better defense, rebounding much better and playing more like a team than we have seen in a decade. Even “We Believe” Warriors had a different feel than the current team. All caveats of too early to really have an opinion aside, what do you think of Smart so far? Keeper or not? And if you would rather see another man coaching the W’s who would it be?
Memphis
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Golden State
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Oracle Arena
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| 2010-11 Meetings | ||
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| November 3, 2010 • Recap | ||
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Grizzlies | 109 |
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Warriors | 115 |
| November 26, 2010 • Recap | ||
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Warriors | 111 |
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Grizzlies | 116 |
| March 30, 2011 • Recap | ||
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Warriors | 91 |
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Grizzlies | 110 |
A few non-in-depth things to look for in this game for me:
Halftime Update: Monta has been running the point well with some help from Williams. Doing a decent job with 2 TOs between them. Brandan Wright has not gotten into the game, nor has Lin. Lee is playing okay and at least crashing the boards (9 at halftime) but it only 2-10 on the floor. Dorell Wright on the other hand is playing great and Monta is having a typical night. Warriors were -1 on the glass but built a 12 point lead by going to the line 21 times. Biedrins has been pretty non-existent outside of a couple of nice passes and as I write this picks up his 4th foul a few minutes into the second half.
WW’s own
Mike: 36-46
Jake: 34-48
Christian: 37-45
Ryan:
Around the Web:
TK: 35-47
Mike Massa: 34 to 38 wins
Warrior’s Wire: 35-47
GS Worriers: 36-46
Matt Steinmetz: 33-49
A slew of folks over at ESPN: No record predictions but standings predictions and they are not kind.
Arturo Galletti: 50.2 wins. How much do you love WP48?
Basketball Reference: 3 models: 34.6, 41.9, 35.2
Watching the Heat lose to the Celtics was certainly gratifying despite my hatred of Boston sports fans. On the second half of the TNT docket is Houston vs LA Lakers. We get a preview of tomorrow night’s Warriors opponent in the Rockets with the added bonus that they will be on the second half of the dreaded road back-to-back. Hopefully the Black Mamba and Ron-Ron can wear them down.
Sorry for the back to back Arturo posts, but Arturo has done a small work-up of pre-season wins produced. Keep in mind that these are pre-season numbers, but Jeff Adrien is #3 in the league behind Kevin Love and Blake Griffon and immediately ahead of Udonis Haslam and LeBron James. Don’t expect that to be the case come the regular season, but it shows that Adrien may be a very effective and valuable player. Of course none of these absurdly high WP48s will hold, so sample size may just be way too low to take anything at all from it, but if trends are at all accurate it looks like the Dub’s made the right choice for their 15th roster spot.
EDIT: Updated pre-season WP48. Dwight Howard passes Adrien.
Arturo Galletti over at Arturo’s Silly Little Stats knows a whole hell of a lot more than any of us about statistics. I usually have to pull a George W. Bush and mostly use my gut for my season win total predictions.
He thinks taking the Warriors on the over is easy money. His prediction is for 45.55 wins, which my gut says is overly optimistic. How he did his predictions can be found in two parts: part 1 and part 2. Again I don’t know enough about stats to quibble with his predictions but my gut tells me again that Portland is not the second best team in the league behind only the hated Miami Heat.
Will the W’s really make the playoffs and win 45-46 games? Thoughts?
Photo by Flickr user jtyerse used under a Creative Commons License
Nothing of huge importance, but Magic Johnson confirmed that he had talks of buying a share of the Warriors, but that nothing came of it.
I went through a bit of work to create my own new statistic. I should have looked at the advance stats at Basketball Reference a little closer as they have ORB% which is pretty similar to my calculation and really what I was going for. But because I did the legwork and my ORBe is slightly different I may as well post it.
I wanted to look at Offensive Rebounds in a way that accounted for chances rather than just looking Offensive Rebounds per Game. I aimed to estimate the number of chances a player has at an offensive board (this is where Basketball Reference and my method differed) and correlate that with the number of Offensive Rebounds he actual has and get a measure of Offensive Rebounding ability.
The Equation: (Player Offensive Rebounds/Team FG missed)/((player minutes played)/((team minutes)/5))*100
or pORB/(tFGm)/((pMIN/(tMIN/5))*100
Where Team FG Missed tFGM=(tFGA-tFG)
BR calculated their “chances” as tORB + oppDRB so this counts only rebounded balls, where as my ORBe counts all missed shots. ORBe includes shots that hit the top of the backboard and are out of bounds (bad) but also counts shots that go out of bounds off of someone’s hands (good, in my mind this was a valid chance).
I took the top 10 players in ORB per Game in the Western Conference plus Biedrins, Anthony Randolph (best Warrior by ORB/G) and David Lee. Below are the players posted in order of ORB/G rank.
ORBe of the Western Conference ORB/G leaders + some Warriors
For Marcus Camby and Drew Gooden who played on multiple teams I used team stats of the team they played the most games for. I will have to go back and adjust for playing time percentages. I was surprised to Marc Gasol on this list.
Brendan Haywood DAMN! AR is not looking too bad either. His lower ORB/G is an obvious product of his lower min per game total. Striking how similar he and Jason Thompson’s numbers are.
And now the depressing part … AR is gone and David Lee, for all his rebounding ability does not show too well by ORBe with the lowest percentage on this list (by a full point). Maybe part of that was playing out of position or the style of play and he will improve on the Warriors. I sure hope so. He would have been in the top 15 in ORB/G if he were in the Western Conference last year (ahead of Biedrins and AR) so I think it is fair to compare him to this group.
