Archive for the ‘ draft ’ Category

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29
Jun

Reviewing the draft

Some early thoughts on the Warriors’ draft last night:

Harrison Barnes — I certainly have my issues with Barnes. As a Duke fan, I followed his career pretty closely starting with his bizarre signing day press conference. At times, he looked like one of the best players in the country, and he definitely proved he can make big shots in the clutch. But he would also completely disappear for stretches at at time — especially when Kendall Marshall was out, as we saw in the tournament this year — and shied away from contact and rebounding. I still recommend the Grantland article for the best overall take on his…weird and overly polished “career” thus far.

That said, there’s definitely a good chance that he becomes a solid pro, and an outside chance that he could be a star. He has great size for the position, his physical tools are off the charts, and he can make outside shots. He’s also clearly bright and motivated, he just hasn’t channeled it in effective ways. He played in a system that isn’t conducive to showing off the sort of pick and roll and one-on-one play that he’ll focus on in the league, so we could see a lot more drives when he’s playing in a pro offense. The biggest red flag to me is that he hasn’t shown much of an interest or ability in the passing department, though he hasn’t been a Maggette-esque black hole either.

I think the key will be for the Warriors to teach him how to take advantage of his natural abilities more productively. I think Jackson will be an effective motivator for getting Barnes to play hard and be more physical, but I’m also desperately hoping that Michael Malone comes back so he can teach him the finer points on how to be an NBA 3.

The good news is that he has the physical tools and motivation to be a great player. The best case scenario on why he hasn’t lived up to the hype thus far is that he’s been misguided: focused too much on brand and legacy, playing in a system that didn’t take full advantage of his talent, and not properly coached to be more physical and take advantage of his (measured off the court) athleticism. I think we’ll know early on if things will be different for him at the NBA level.

And as for other options at 7, I think Drummond has a chance to be special and at the very least a valuable trading piece down the road, but it’s indisputable that Barnes will be a better immediate contributor. And there wasn’t anyone else I would have taken over either of those two at 7. So I think it’s a defensible pick — my biggest disappointment on the night is simply that MKG didn’t unexpectedly fall to a place where the Warriors could grab him.

Festus Ezeli — I don’t know much about him, but seems like a solid backup center and I like the reports that he dominated Zeller in workouts. I also like the talk of 5% body fat, so he should be strong enough to bang with the biggest centers in the league and at the very least give some quality backup fouls from the 5. Only thing he’ll need to do next year is play some defense, and if they can get that at the center position from the 30th pick then I’ll take it.

Draymond Green — Like everyone else, I really like this pick. Saw him play several times during his career and it was obvious that he’s a special player and has an incredible basketball IQ. The big question will be where he fits in on the court given his size. Seems to me like he could be a great stretch-4 who also plays a bit of point forward, making plays and drawing his man out of the lane. But will he be able to defend 4′s on the other end? His thickness and great rebounding numbers suggest he can, but we definitely won’t know for sure until we see him actually play.

Ognjen Kuzmic — Who knows, but just from his size it seems like he’s worth taking a flyer on. We’ll check in on him in a few years.

Overall, right now I’d give the Warriors a B+ for the draft. At the very least they should end up with a decent starter and one or two solid rotation players, with a chance for much more than that. And perhaps best of all, I’m really looking forward to seeing not only how these new guys play in the summer league, but how the whole team plays next fall — if everyone gets healthy, they should actually play like a complete team and should knock on the door for a playoff spot. While I still want to get a pass-first point guard on the roster, they filled a lot of holes last night and should be much improved next year.

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28
Jun

One Man’s Big Board

Here’s my big board for the draft tonight. Bottom line is that I would absolutely love to get MKG, am not a fan of Harrison Barnes though I still think he’ll be decent, and think a trade down — say, with Houston for their two best remaining first rounders, or 12 and Lowry — would make a lot of sense if my top 3 are off the board.

  1. Anthony Davis — For all of the obvious reasons
  2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist — A winner, a physical mismatch at a position of need, a plus defender who could be a lock-down you assign to the superstars in this league, and an unselfish player on a roster with plenty of scorers. Ready to contribute immediately.
  3. Thomas Robinson — Hard to go wrong with his size, and he performed great on the national stage. Would become the immediate backup for Lee and maybe make the latter expendable in the mind of management (whether they could trade him though is another story).
  4. Andre Drummond — Simply put, the potential reward is worth the risk. At the very least, he becomes a huge potential trade asset at next year’s deadline as long as he can do anything positive in the meantime.
  5. Bradley Beal — Can’t-miss prospect, but at the easiest position on the court to fill.
  6. Dion Waiters — Pretty much the same as Beal, though I do like the edge he would bring and his ability to drive.
  7. Harrison Barnes — Great measurables, but a surprising lack of athleticism on the court and I don’t trust his motor. While he’s a fairly safe pick to be at least a decent rotation player, he avoided physical contact throughout college so I worry he’ll turn into an exclusive jump-shooter who doesn’t rebound and doesn’t defend. Not exactly what the Warriors need, even if he’d still be an upgrade over Wright and Jefferson.
  8. Tyler Zeller — Totally unsexy pick, but the guy is going to be a backup center in the league for the next 10 years and will be able to contribute right away.
  9. Damian Lillard — Has Monta redux written all over him, though at least he has a bit more of a background as a true PG than Monta did when he came into the league. If the Warriors pick a guard, I really think it needs to be someone who can provide backup minutes at both positions. The kid can still score though which has value.
  10. Kendall Marshall — Best true PG in the draft, and has enough size that he might be able to cover 2′s while Curry is on the court (though Marshall is hardly a defensive wizard). While he’s probably not athletic enough to ever be truly great, I think he’s guaranteed to be a solid backup PG for years to come.
  11. Royce White — All the tools, and this Grantland feature makes me feel that the anxiety disorder worries, while still a factor to consider, aren’t crippling.
  12. Moe Harkless — Great defensive potential, high ceiling, and the right attitude to get there.
  13. Meyers Leonard — 7’1″ and not completely lost on the court. That’s reason enough to take a flier in the middle of the first round.
  14. John Henson — A poor man’s Anthony Davis, if he can actually put on weight he could be something special. But he has a long way to go and will likely have an early career that mirrors Brandon Wright. Would be a better pick as a trade asset than immediate contributor.
  15. Jae Crowder — Would love to snag this guy at 30 based on his advanced stats alone. I wouldn’t mind him in the teens either if the Warriors end up there for their second pick.
  16. Jared Sullinger — Even with the back issues, by the middle of the first round he’s worth taking a chance on.
  17. Terrence Jones — A bit of a tweener as he’s not quite as big as you’d like at PF and it doesn’t sound like he showed much ability to play the 3, but the best of what’s remaining at this point.
  18. Terrence Ross — Prototypical SF size, not the most exciting pick but should at least be a rotation player.
  19. Evan Fournier — Great way to stash a rookie off the roster if they end up with too many, and should be the SF of the future. That future is at least a few years away, though.
  20. Fab Melo — Great size, though at this point we’re definitely getting into potential bust territory.

UPDATE: A second man’s (Jake’s) kinda big board. Got this up late after 3 days of no internet access.

If the Warrior’s don’t trade their pick, I think they should end up with the highest ranked of these 7 guys
1) Anthony Davis
2) MKG
3) Thomas Robinson
4) Bradley Beal
5) Harrison Barnes (I cannot believe I have him this high)
6) Andre Drummond
7) Tyler Zeller
And a few options if the Warriors trade down
Teens: Henson
20′s: Perry Jones III, or Fab Melo or Draymond Green
30: Sullinger if he falls that far or I like Steinmetz’s pick of Fournier out of France even though I know next to nothing about him, but no one else really excites me. I certainly don’t see any Pac-10 or WAC sleepers
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30
May

2012 Lottery Open Thread

Ping pong project

 Photo by Flickr user Michael Knowles (mknowlesused under a Creative Commons License

The NBA draft lottery is tonight and we get to find out how much David Stern likes the new Warrior’s ownership group. everyone knows the deal, but there is a 73% chance the Warrior’s will pick 1-3 or 7th and keep their pick. If the 27% comes up then they ship their pick off to Utah as part of a couple of trades that netted the Warrior’s a back-up point guard that barely played and the rights to further protect the pick that lead to Klay Thompson. That further protection ended up being unnecessary.

There was talk of the Warrior’s making another deal with Utah to protect this pick no matter what happened in the lottery tonight, but it sounds like those talks have fallen apart. Not really surprised, as I am not sure why Utah would agree to such a deal without heavy compensation. Next year’s pick that could go to Utah will be top 6 protected, but if there is any chance greater than about 5% of the Warrior’s landing in the top 6 then the season was an unmitigated disaster and the whole team needs to be taken Florida to have their faces eaten off by dudes on some new form of LSD. I have to say I am glad the Warrior’s are not trading away the farm to hedge against 27%.  In this game you have to have bigger cajones than that.

TK is predicting that the Warrior’s end up with the #3 pick, a bold prediction since they only have a 4.9% chance this happens. Really though it is typical TK because there are no downsides to this prediction only massive bragging rights if it comes up true. Maybe TK really does think Stern doesn’t bounce the balls with full integrity. This would probably mean drafting MKG and a collective post-coital cigarette by Warrior’s fans.

So what do you think? I am going to go against the odds and say the Warrior’s slip back and lose the pick and this nightmare will finally be over.

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17
May

Draft Lottery

Photo by Flickr user markybon used under a Creative Commons License.

 

The Warrior’s have a 0.8% chance at the number one spot thanks to their late season surge, but here’s hoping the NBA is happy to fix the lottery the Warrior’s way and they can at least move into the top 3.

Use this as a lottery open thread if you wish.