Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus has Festivus grievances. Mainly that NBA GMs are too cautious and worry too much about injuries when it comes to the Draft. The discussion is brought about by Brandon Roy’s knee problems and Kevin McHale’s declaration that Minnesota traded Roy for Foye because they knew Roy’s knees would eventually give out. Roy had surgery on both knees before he was drafted. I am sure the money Minnesota saved by paying the 7th pick rather than the 6th pick had nothing to do with it.

As it turned out, Roy is now dealing with those very knee problems, but only after a highly productive start to his NBA career. Here are the WARP totals through 2009-10 of everyone drafted in the 2006 lottery:

Pk   Tm    Player              WARP

1    TOR   Andrea Bargnani      5.9
2    CHI   LaMarcus Aldridge   18.6
3    CHA   Adam Morrison      - 8.0
4    POR   Tyrus Thomas        11.4
5    ATL   Shelden Williams     1.3
6    MIN   Brandon Roy         37.9
7    BOS   Randy Foye           5.1
8    HOU   Rudy Gay            11.1
9    GSW   Patrick O’Bryant   - 0.5
10   SEA   Mouhamed Sene        0.2
11   ORL   J.J. Redick          5.2
12   NOK   Hilton Armstrong   - 3.5
13   PHI   Thabo Sefolosha      0.9
14   UTA   Ronnie Brewer        9.6

Of the 14 lottery picks, how many of them are likely to match Roy’s current WARP total? LaMarcus Aldridge is likely to get there, and Rudy Gay, who is still young and already has put up 3.0 WARP this year, has a pretty good shot. Tyrus Thomas might do so if he figures things out. And that’s it. So even if we conservatively assume that Roy is entirely finished as an NBA player of value, he is still likely to be at worst the fourth-best player in the lottery. Suffice it to say that Foye, who can’t even get off the bench for one of the league’s worst teams, is not going to make it.

Even in hindsight it is easy to say that picking Roy was the right call for Portland, especially over Foye. As Kevin points out, even if Roy never plays another NBA game he is a lock to be the 4th best player in the 2006 lottery. IF HE NEVER PLAYS AGAIN. With rookie salaries the financial hit of an injury prone player is much less that that of a veteran, so at worst Portland’s mistake was extending Roy, but not drafting him.

On the other side of the coin is Roy’s team mate, Greg Oden. Was Pritchard more of a gambler than the other NBA GMs? Was Oden’s injury easier to see coming? I certainly think that on the scale of injuries to worry about the knees of a “Big Man” are far more worrisome than the knees of a back court player. The guard may rely on speed and with shaky knees be slowed down, but with a slimmer body mass he may just be slowed down rather than stopped. A guard who has lost a step still has something to offer where as an already slow center with bad knees doesn’t have much.

And POB was only the third worst lottery pick of 2006! Good job Warriors.

Photo by Flickr user Bekathwia used under a CC license. Much more intimate ones where that came from.

Via MY