Archive for the ‘ random stats ’ Category

0
20
Mar

Monta Ellis Win vs. Loss

Yesterday I looked at some of David Lee’s stats in wins versus losses.

Today we look at Monta Ellis’s PTS in wins versus loses.  Simply, Monta’s PTS total shows differences in wins and losses that are statistically significant (the notches do not overlap).  Monta scores more points in a Warrior’s win than he does in a loss.  While it is not surprising that this trend is true I did find it somewhat surprising that the difference has a p value<0.05 as none of the things I have looked at so far show statistical significance.

 

 

 

 

 

4
19
Mar

David Lee Wins vs Losses

Since I accuse David Lee of only having good games in Warrior’s losses I thought I would build a little box plot of his total rebounds and points scored in wins versus loses.

Turns out I was probably wrong.  Lee has pretty much the exact same rebounding average in a win as in a loss.  He has slightly more points in a loss but it is not a huge difference (about a point).  Lee is however much more consistent in losses than he is in wins, that can be seen in the more compact boxes.  Look how 10-11 rebounds takes up the entire 50-75% percentile group.  That is pretty damn consistent.  Lee is more likely to have a good rebounding game in a Warriors win (or the Warriors tend to win when Lee has a higher rebounding game) which makes sense.

Nothing earth-shattering but there it is. Maybe I will take a look at some of the other players over the next few days.

On a side note I like the boxplot because there is more information in it than just looking at per game averages home versus away, for example the implied consistency.

UPDATE: In the comments Mike asked for the assists version of this graph.  I don’t think you could have drawn splits that were much similar.

David Lee Assists in wins versus losses

 

2
13
Jan

Scoring by quarter

When looking at the scoring by quarter data on our revamped Stats page something looked odd to me. Scoring by quarter did not appear to be randomly distributed. With the season approaching the 50% mark I thought I would do some very basic analysis to see if my eyes were lying to me. Short story: maybe, maybe not. There are slight differences in scoring by quarter and we can make some statements about trends but strictly speaking differences are are not significantly significant (p<0.05) although it would have been pretty shocking if they had been.

First, the Warriors’s scoring by quarter in a boxplot. For those unfamiliar there are a few basic things you can take away from a boxplot. The box contains the 50% of the data set. The lower (left) edge of the box represents the 25th percentile and the upper (right) edge of the box represents the 75th percentile. The line in the box is the median, meaning half the data points lie above it and half lie below it. A tighter box means a tighter data set and less variability. A median line off center of the box suggests a bias in the data. The whiskers are 1.5 times the Inter-quartile range and any circles are further outliers.

The Warrior’s points by quarters boxplot through the 1/12/11 Laker’s game:

What does this graph tell us? The 3rd quarter tends to be their most consistent quarter from game to game. Pretty damn tight. The first quarter is their highest scoring quarter by a small margin, but when they suck in the 1st they can suck all the way down the spectrum. Look how skewed the box is in regards to the median. That is a wide range of below median scoring. The 4th quarter may be their most inconsistent quarter, but I imagine it may be that was for a lot of teams especially if you are on either side of a blow out, but that is pure speculation.

What about the Warriors’s defense, looking at opponent scoring by quarter?

The Warriors’s defense is pretty bad in the 1st quarter. It is on the edge of actually being statistically significant from the second quarter when their defense improves (almost significantly!). Interestingly their 3rd quarter defense is the most consistent just like their offense. If only games contained 3rd quarters and nothing else.

Overall their defense is less sporadic than their offense. The Warriors are streaky shooters, but their opponents don’t tend to be, at least when they are playing the Warriors.

UPDATE: Season +/- by quarter below. Their most consistent 3rd quarter is actually their second worst by the +/-, so really they need to play all 2nd quarter games. I guess their defense is just that much better in the second and the key to scoring differential may lie in their defense rather than their offense.

Season Avg -2.3 0.1 -1.7 -0.5