Archive for the ‘ Warriors ’ Category

4
20
Feb

What’s To Come

With the season resuming on Tuesday, attention now turns to the 27 games that the Warriors have remaining on the schedule. Here’s a quick look ahead, with home games shaded in blue and road games in yellow (my prediction is in the final column):

Date Home/Away Opponent Opp Record Opp Win % Warriors B2B? Opponent B2B? Prediction
2/22/11 Home Celtics 40-14 74.1% Win
2/25/11 Home Hawks 34-21 61.8% Loss
2/27/11 Away Timberwolves 13-43 23.2% Win
3/1/11 Away Pacers 24-30 44.4% Win
3/2/11 Away Wizards 15-39 27.8% Yes Win
3/4/11 Away Celtics 40-14 74.1% Loss
3/6/11 Away Sixers 27-29 48.2% Loss
3/8/11 Away Cavaliers 10-46 17.9% Win
3/9/11 Away Nets 17-40 29.8% Yes Loss
3/11/11 Home Magic 36-21 63.2% Loss
3/13/11 Home Timberwolves 13-43 23.2% Win
3/14/11 Away Kings 13-40 24.5% Yes Win
3/16/11 Home Mavericks 40-16 71.4% Yes Win
3/18/11 Away Suns 27-27 50.0% Loss
3/20/11 Away Mavericks 40-16 71.4% Loss
3/21/11 Away Spurs 46-10 82.1% Yes Loss
3/23/11 Away Rockets 26-31 45.6% Win
3/25/11 Home Raptors 15-41 26.8% Win
3/27/11 Home Wizards 15-39 27.8% Win
3/29/11 Away Thunder 35-19 64.8% Win
3/30/11 Away Grizzlies 31-26 54.4% Yes Loss
4/2/11 Home Mavericks 40-16 71.4% Loss
4/5/11 Away Blazers 34-24 58.6% Loss
4/6/11 Home Lakers 38-19 66.7% Yes Yes Loss
4/10/11 Home Kings 13-40 24.5% Win
4/11/11 Away Nuggets 32-25 56.1% Yes Win
4/13/11 Home Blazers 34-24 58.6% Yes Win

A few things stand out. Clearly, the remaining games are road-heavy, which doesn’t sound too great for a team that’s currently 7-18 away from Oracle. But as Feltbot noted the other day, the quality of the opposition isn’t too strong on the upcoming trip (Celtics game excepted, of course).

All in all, the teams the Warriors face the rest of the way have a 49.8% combined winning percentage, with the road opponents at 48.4% and 52% for the home opponents. But the easier road teams are concentrated in the upcoming trip, and after the Kings game on March 14 they play 7 of their final 8 road games against teams that are .500 or better.

There’s one more point that’s worrisome — as Owen notes, the back-to-backs are decidedly against the Warriors in this home stretch. They play 7 more sets, while they only face 3 more opponents who are playing their second in two. That’s not going to make things any easier.

So what will win out? Can the Warriors take advantage of the markedly average level of their competition, or will fatigue overcome a team that already plays their starters too much? Do they have a pre-We-Believe! style run in them?

My best guess? If you add up my prediction column above, you’ll see that I have them going 15-12 the rest of the way to finish right at .500. Will that be enough to make the playoffs? It just might — especially if the Nuggets trade Carmelo for picks, Chris Paul’s knee acts up, the Blazers duct tape finally starts to fall off, and Memphis succumbs to their March schedule. But would I bet on it? Probably not at this point.

Knowing this team, it seems like just about anything is possible — and that the only things that is guaranteed is what we’ve seen throughout this year: a recurring cycle of furious optimism and crushing defeats. The only question is what part of the cycle we’ll end on…

UPDATE: Jake’s predictions for 10-17.

Date Home/Away Opponent Opp Record Opp Win % Warriors B2B? Opponent B2B? Prediction
2/22/11 Home Celtics 40-14 74.1% Loss
2/25/11 Home Hawks 34-21 61.8% Loss
2/27/11 Away Timberwolves 13-43 23.2% Win
3/1/11 Away Pacers 24-30 44.4% Win
3/2/11 Away Wizards 15-39 27.8% Yes Win
3/4/11 Away Celtics 40-14 74.1% Loss
3/6/11 Away Sixers 27-29 48.2% Loss
3/8/11 Away Cavaliers 10-46 17.9% Win
3/9/11 Away Nets 17-40 29.8% Yes Loss
3/11/11 Home Magic 36-21 63.2% Loss
3/13/11 Home Timberwolves 13-43 23.2% Win
3/14/11 Away Kings 13-40 24.5% Yes Win
3/16/11 Home Mavericks 40-16 71.4% Yes Loss
3/18/11 Away Suns 27-27 50.0% Loss
3/20/11 Away Mavericks 40-16 71.4% Loss
3/21/11 Away Spurs 46-10 82.1% Yes Loss
3/23/11 Away Rockets 26-31 45.6% Loss
3/25/11 Home Raptors 15-41 26.8% Win
3/27/11 Home Wizards 15-39 27.8% Win
3/29/11 Away Thunder 35-19 64.8% Loss
3/30/11 Away Grizzlies 31-26 54.4% Yes Loss
4/2/11 Home Mavericks 40-16 71.4% Loss
4/5/11 Away Blazers 34-24 58.6% Loss
4/6/11 Home Lakers 38-19 66.7% Yes Yes Loss
4/10/11 Home Kings 13-40 24.5% Win
4/11/11 Away Nuggets 32-25 56.1% Yes Loss
4/13/11 Home Blazers 34-24 58.6% Yes Win
2
3
Feb

2011 All-Star Line-up

Once again no Golden State Warriors …

The 2010-2011 West All-Stars

Starters
Kevin Durant
Carmelo Anthony
Kobe Bryant
Chris Paul
Yao Ming (Injured)

Reserves
Tim Duncan
Pau Gasol
Blake Griffin
Manu Ginobili
Dirk Nowitzki
Russell Westbrook
Deron Williams

Kevin Love seems to be the biggest snub here and should get the injury replacement for Yao Ming. Monta isn’t making it unless someone else gets hurt. I have to admit I am slightly surprised by the Blake Griffin choice. He is damn good don’t get me wrong, but it kinda reeks of NBA promoting their next big star before he is really a star. But I guess it is nice to see a new name or two. As good as Duncan has been in his career he does not belong in the 2011 All-Star Game.

Truehoops on the Monta “snub” which I think is dead accurate:

Monta Ellis
Turn off your inner critic for a moment. Speak not of efficiency, nor wins and losses. Take a deep breath. Go to your happy place. Listen to the airy music. And just watch what this guy does: He takes big piles of nothing and turns them into and-1s. He takes your lazy passes and makes them steals and dunks. He takes double teams and splits them. He takes your slow defender and makes him fall over. He takes your outstretched arms, and, little though he is, shoots over them, and hits every time. At least, that’s how it goes in the highlight reel. He’d be fun to watch in Los Angeles. (And Commissioner Stern, think how much cheaper the travel would be, sending a guy who lives a tad farther up the coast.)

All in all I cannot make a strong argument that Monta should have been an All-Star. If he had made the team, I don’t think I would have had a strong argument that he should have been left off though either. It is probably best that he gets a rest.

I have nothing to say about the East except there are a heck of a lot more better players in the West than the East still. See the Truehoop East “snub” list.

The 2010-2011 East All-Stars

Starters
LeBron James
Amare Stoudemire
Dwyane Wade
Derrick Rose
Dwight Howard

Reserves
Ray Allen
Chris Bosh
Kevin Garnett
Al Horford
Joe Johnson
Paul Pierce
Rajon Rondo

1
21
Jan

First Half Advanced Stats

I can’t claim to be an expert on the advanced stats, but here are the team breakdowns from a few sources.

First, Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Ratings –The first three names in the chart are no surprise, but interesting that Brandan Wright comes in as the 4th most efficient player. Must discount defense heavily.

Click for Larger Version

Second, we have Win Shares via Basketball-Reference.com — Monta has the most shares and is second to Curry in WS/48, and B. Wright again makes a surprising appearance near the top (with the other Wright far down in the table). In all, this metric gives very similar rankings to PER above.

Click for larger version

In contrast, Wins Produced gives us some very different rankings. Dorell Wright leads the way in wins produced, with Monta second though his WP48 is well below the league average of .100. Biedrins has the highest WP48, with Curry second and David Lee as the only other above-average player on the team. Of course, this system also accounts for only 15 wins for the Warriors, so either it’s under-valuing the team or they’ve just gotten lucky:

Click for larger image

Wins Produced places extra value on rebounds and penalizes for high usage rates, which must explain Monta’s low ranking in the system (Kevin Love has the most wins produced in the league, followed by Chris Paul, LeBron James, and Dwight Howard). Still, I’m kinda surprised that he’s below average as he rebounds decently for a guard, does well in steals, and has a solid true shooting percentage of 55.7%. Usage must trump all, I guess.

So take all this for what it’s worth. Food for thought, at the very least. Any other advanced metrics that I should be looking at?

6
19
Jan

Mid Season Grades

MTII is asking for midseason grades for the W’s players and front office.

Here are mine with little to no explanation. Feel free to add yours to the comments or blog authors can add them to the end of the post.

PLAYERS

Monta Ellis – A- Making it really hard to leave him off the All-Star team, has become clutch and the assist numbers are up. Is a bit of a volume shooter at times, but who else is going to shoot the rock at times? FT% is lower than it should be

Stephen Curry – B- A/TO ratio is not as good as it needs to be and although it has improved recently he has become less aggressive. Defense is a D

Dorell Wright – B+ He is having a career year and his 3PT% has been spectacular for stretches. A little inconsistent but better than I had hoped for. Very happy he is a Warrior.

David Lee – B I won’t penalize him for being hurt or for his contract but he just disappears too often and rarely changes a game.

Andris Biedrins – D+ Playing better of late but he really needs to be more aggressive. Rebounding is good when he can stay on the court. I am taking his contract into account somewhat with this grade though.

Reggie Williams – C Some A games, some F games = C

Vladimir Radmanovic – B+ Wow. After last year I would have taken a C in a heart beat. Not the most awesomest, but Most Improved on the team? Looks like a guy playing for a contract.

Acie Law – C Pulling this one out of the arse

Lou Amundson – C- Was expecting more but it may not be all his fault.

Dan Gadzuric – D doesn’t get an F because of one or two good games

Ekpe Udoh – INC Just cannot give him a grade yet but he is playing better than I thought he would

Brandan Wright – F Decent game tonight against Indiana but he went from a decent trade asset to worth less than my pup’s coach collar.

Charlie Bell – ?

Jeremy Lin – INC Doesn’t get enough time on the floor to get a grade. Would like to see him play a bit more in the D-league so we could trade Acie Law to NYK for Anthony Randolph and move Lin to the back-up spot.

FRONT OFFICE

Keith Smart – C- I was ready to fire him two weeks ago and still pretty much there but not as strongly as before. The team wins the games they should and loses the ones they should but a good coach should shift that over a little. I don’t mind seeing him finish the year out but I am not sure he is the coach of the future.

Larry Riley – C I was not a fan of the Lee trade, but like it more than I did when it happened. Otherwise no other signing or move has meant a damn thing. Let’s see what happens at the trade deadline.

Joe Lacob – C See above. Really should be an incomplete, but I will give him a C anyways. They have done a decent job of marketing the team and reaching out to the fans and the media. If the rumors are true and Monta gets traded they better get a boatload for him because he is starting to look like a legitimate All-Star. The only moves made so far have been minor, but have been the safe $ move By not having the name Chris Cohan he is not eligible for an F at this point.

Where do you disagree with me or agree with the grade but for different reasons?

Update by Mike:

I think your player ratings are basically right on. I have a bit of sympathy for Gadzuric just because he plays so damn hard whenever he gets on the court, but the production just hasn’t been there. One interesting thing about Biedrins is that he’s actually leading the team in wins produced (I’m planning to post an item on advanced stats at the midway point shortly), though I just can’t shake the impression I get with my own eyes that he’s been a bit of a shell of himself. Still, I’d probably bump him up to a B- on production alone, though the D+ fits in terms of potential.

And Charlie Bell deserves an F — he’s been awful and is a bigger waste of a roster spot than Lin.

I’d differ on the front office, as I think Reilly gets an incomplete until we get to the trade deadline. Several of the offseason moves from the past two years were seemingly crafted with a trade in mind (big expiring salaries for Gadzuric and Radmonovic in particular), and until we see what Reilly does with them I hesitate to judge him. Picking up Law has proven to be a decent move, and while Lee isn’t quite playing like a $13M player, he’s definitely an upgrade over last year and would be considered a steal at, say, $9M per.

I’m also a bit softer on Lacob and would give him an incomplete as well, as I don’t think you can blame him for all that ails the team. There’s no question that they’re rebounding better this year than last (admittedly not a high bar to clear), and while the Amundson move hasn’t paid off much they did get him for a cheap price. Same goes for Lin, who has certainly shown flashes, and if he could get a bit more seasoning he could definitely be found money. Like with Reilly, I think what happens at the trade deadline (and in this first offseason for the new ownership) will be the point where I can really judge.

As for Smart, I just keep going back and forth with him. Sometimes I feel like he gets out-coached, but then he’ll pull a move like he did with Wright last night that shows adjustment and deserves respect. He’s certainly learning on the job, and deserves credit for the incredible team chemistry (along with Lee and Monta). I like that he’s had a firm hand with Curry’s carelessness, though I’d also like to see him give Curry the green light a bit more often so that’s a bit of a wash. So I’d probably give him a C+ at this point.

1
15
Dec

Game #25: Warriors 108, Timberwolves 99

Timberwolves 99

@

Warriors 108
December 14, 2010 1 2 3 4 T
Timberwolves 25 26 25 23 99
Warriors 17 37 25 29 108
  Net -8 11 0 6 9
  Season Avg -2.9 0.8 -0.4 -0.1 -2.2
  Compare to Season Avg -5.1 10.2 0.4 6.1 11.2
 Warriors Stats
  FG% 3P% FT% FTA Fouls OReb TReb Assists Steals Blocks Turns POTurns PIPaint FBPoints
Game 50.6% 50% 61.3% 31 20 12 43 21 9 3 17 13 44 15
Season Avg 46.2% 39.2% 76.1% 20.7 22 11.6 40.5 22.5 9 5 14.1 17.5 42.6 18.6
Difference 4.5% 10.8% -14.8% 10.3 -2 0.4 2.5 -1.5 0 -2 2.9 -1.5 1.4 -3.6
 Net Comparison
  FG% 3P% FT% FTA Fouls OReb TReb Assists Steals Blocks Turns POTurns PIPaint FBPoints
Net Game 4.8% 22.2% -5.4% 7 5 -4 -4 -5 2 2 3 5 -6 -6
Net Season Avg -0.6% 3.5% -1.2% -7 -3.6 -1.2 -4.3 -2.2 0.8 0.7 1.2 2 -2.9 -0.8
Net Difference 5.4% 18.7% -4.2% 14 8.6 -2.8 0.3 -2.8 1.2 1.3 1.8 3 -3.1 -5.2

The Warriors got a much needed win last night thanks to the T-wolves which handed the Warriors their last win. So thanks Minnesota. But in all honesty the Warriors should beat Minnesota every time they play and either Monta or Curry is on the court. The Monta-Curry (Williams last night) duo is just so much better than Minnesota’s backcourt. If you are starting Luke Ridnour you are not a very good team. This is still shocking reminder that Minnesota took two point guards in the 2009 draft and have nothing to show for it.

Admunson was a force off the bench and sported an eye-popping +22. But if you watched the game last night you did not need to see that stat to know he was one of the major reasons they Warriors were able to pull away late. And pull away late on the back end of the B2B even if it was at home. This smelled like a trap game so it was great to see them pull it off.

Props obviously have to go to Monta for scoring 30+ points and playing all 48 minutes. Reggie Williams had another good game, including a monster heart stopping dunk. I swear I think he is going to come up short and brick those high flying dunks every time.

David Lee had another double-double 10-11, but was a pathetic -13. I am not sure I believe he is all the way back to 100% yet. At least let’s hope that is the reason otherwise this is going to be a long half a decade paying his salary. But props to him and the rest of the big men for holding Love and Beasley in check.

Minnesota Timberwolves (6-19)
field goals rebounds
pos min fgm-a 3pm-a ftm-a +/- off def tot ast pf st to bs ba pts
M. Beasley F 34:56 9-16 1-3 0-1 -3 2 5 7 2 6 1 3 0 1 19
K. Love F-C 43:39 6-18 0-3 1-2 -4 4 10 14 3 2 0 2 0 1 13
D. Milicic C 31:34 12-19 0-0 1-1 -15 6 5 11 0 5 1 4 0 1 25
W. Johnson G 20:17 2-5 0-3 0-0 -5 0 2 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 4
L. Ridnour G 31:29 1-9 0-3 3-4 -9 1 2 3 11 3 3 1 0 0 5
N. Pekovic 06:28 1-2 0-0 0-1 0 2 1 3 0 2 0 2 0 0 2
J. Flynn 16:31 1-2 1-2 0-0 0 1 1 2 4 0 0 1 0 0 3
C. Brewer 28:44 1-6 1-2 8-10 -2 0 0 0 3 2 1 2 1 0 11
M. Webster 26:22 6-8 2-2 3-5 -7 0 5 5 2 3 1 5 0 0 17
W. Ellington DNP – Coach’s Decision
L. Hayward DNP – Coach’s Decision
S. Telfair DNP – Coach’s Decision
Total 240 39-85 5-18 16-24 16 31 47 26 25 7 20 1 3 99
45.9% 27.8% 66.7% team rebs: 5 total to: 20
Golden State Warriors (9-16)
field goals rebounds
pos min fgm-a 3pm-a ftm-a +/- off def tot ast pf st to bs ba pts
D. Wright F 30:10 4-14 2-8 2-3 -1 2 3 5 3 0 2 2 2 0 12
D. Lee F-C 30:15 4-10 0-0 2-2 -13 3 8 11 4 1 2 1 0 0 10
A. Biedrins C 31:47 3-4 0-0 1-4 +13 4 8 12 1 3 1 0 0 0 7
R. Williams F 39:11 8-13 4-7 6-8 +10 0 5 5 2 5 0 1 0 0 26
M. Ellis G 48:00 13-24 3-4 5-7 +9 1 3 4 6 3 1 5 0 1 34
A. Law 21:24 3-4 1-2 2-3 +6 1 0 1 3 2 2 2 0 0 9
L. Amundson 26:18 3-6 0-0 1-4 +22 1 2 3 0 2 0 3 1 0 7
V. Radmanovic 06:46 1-2 1-1 0-0 +2 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 3
D. Gadzuric 02:08 0-0 0-0 0-0 +5 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0
E. Udoh 04:01 0-0 0-0 0-0 -8 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0
C. Bell DNP – Coach’s Decision
J. Lin DNP – Coach’s Decision
Total 240 39-77 11-22 19-31 12 31 43 21 20 9 17 3 1 108
50.6% 50.0% 61.3% team rebs: 9 total to: 19

inactive

  • Timberwolves: Gaines, Koufos, Tolliver
  • Warriors: Carney, Curry, Wright

technical fouls

  • Timberwolves: –
  • Warriors: Ellis

scoring

  • Lead Changes: 10
  • Times Tied: 10

arena stats

  • Arena: ORACLE Arena, Oakland, CA
  • Officials: #17 Joe Crawford, #28 Tommy Nunez Jr., #40 Leon Wood
  • Attendance: 17615
  • Duration: 2:17
0
27
Oct

Prediction Round-up

WW’s own

Mike: 36-46

Jake: 34-48

Christian: 37-45

Ryan:

Around the Web:

TK: 35-47

Mike Massa: 34 to 38 wins

Warrior’s Wire: 35-47

GS Worriers: 36-46

Matt Steinmetz: 33-49

A slew of folks over at ESPN: No record predictions but standings predictions and they are not kind.

Arturo Galletti: 50.2 wins. How much do you love WP48?

Basketball Reference: 3 models: 34.6, 41.9, 35.2

5
27
Oct

Win Projections

I think a 10-game improvement sounds just right, so I’ll go with 36-46. What say you all?

1
26
Oct

It’s that damn Curry! He’s so hot right now!

Does Steph Curry have Hollywood Dreams? In a recent email ticket pitch he offers up his best Blue Steel impression:

or is it Le Tigra?

Zoolander 2 is apparently a go. Curry would fit nicely within the proposed idea as a one of the new young models that have come up since our heroes devotion to the School For Kids Who Can’t Read Good (and want to learn how to do other things good).

I’m guessing he focuses on another disaster: GSW

2
20
Oct

Warrior’s win total over/under: some easy money?

Cash Money (part two)

Arturo Galletti over at Arturo’s Silly Little Stats knows a whole hell of a lot more than any of us about statistics. I usually have to pull a George W. Bush and mostly use my gut for my season win total predictions.

He thinks taking the Warriors on the over is easy money. His prediction is for 45.55 wins, which my gut says is overly optimistic. How he did his predictions can be found in two parts: part 1 and part 2. Again I don’t know enough about stats to quibble with his predictions but my gut tells me again that Portland is not the second best team in the league behind only the hated Miami Heat.

Will the W’s really make the playoffs and win 45-46 games? Thoughts?

Photo by Flickr user jtyerse used under a Creative Commons License