29
Jun

Reviewing the draft

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Some early thoughts on the Warriors’ draft last night:

Harrison Barnes — I certainly have my issues with Barnes. As a Duke fan, I followed his career pretty closely starting with his bizarre signing day press conference. At times, he looked like one of the best players in the country, and he definitely proved he can make big shots in the clutch. But he would also completely disappear for stretches at at time — especially when Kendall Marshall was out, as we saw in the tournament this year — and shied away from contact and rebounding. I still recommend the Grantland article for the best overall take on his…weird and overly polished “career” thus far.

That said, there’s definitely a good chance that he becomes a solid pro, and an outside chance that he could be a star. He has great size for the position, his physical tools are off the charts, and he can make outside shots. He’s also clearly bright and motivated, he just hasn’t channeled it in effective ways. He played in a system that isn’t conducive to showing off the sort of pick and roll and one-on-one play that he’ll focus on in the league, so we could see a lot more drives when he’s playing in a pro offense. The biggest red flag to me is that he hasn’t shown much of an interest or ability in the passing department, though he hasn’t been a Maggette-esque black hole either.

I think the key will be for the Warriors to teach him how to take advantage of his natural abilities more productively. I think Jackson will be an effective motivator for getting Barnes to play hard and be more physical, but I’m also desperately hoping that Michael Malone comes back so he can teach him the finer points on how to be an NBA 3.

The good news is that he has the physical tools and motivation to be a great player. The best case scenario on why he hasn’t lived up to the hype thus far is that he’s been misguided: focused too much on brand and legacy, playing in a system that didn’t take full advantage of his talent, and not properly coached to be more physical and take advantage of his (measured off the court) athleticism. I think we’ll know early on if things will be different for him at the NBA level.

And as for other options at 7, I think Drummond has a chance to be special and at the very least a valuable trading piece down the road, but it’s indisputable that Barnes will be a better immediate contributor. And there wasn’t anyone else I would have taken over either of those two at 7. So I think it’s a defensible pick — my biggest disappointment on the night is simply that MKG didn’t unexpectedly fall to a place where the Warriors could grab him.

Festus Ezeli — I don’t know much about him, but seems like a solid backup center and I like the reports that he dominated Zeller in workouts. I also like the talk of 5% body fat, so he should be strong enough to bang with the biggest centers in the league and at the very least give some quality backup fouls from the 5. Only thing he’ll need to do next year is play some defense, and if they can get that at the center position from the 30th pick then I’ll take it.

Draymond Green — Like everyone else, I really like this pick. Saw him play several times during his career and it was obvious that he’s a special player and has an incredible basketball IQ. The big question will be where he fits in on the court given his size. Seems to me like he could be a great stretch-4 who also plays a bit of point forward, making plays and drawing his man out of the lane. But will he be able to defend 4′s on the other end? His thickness and great rebounding numbers suggest he can, but we definitely won’t know for sure until we see him actually play.

Ognjen Kuzmic — Who knows, but just from his size it seems like he’s worth taking a flyer on. We’ll check in on him in a few years.

Overall, right now I’d give the Warriors a B+ for the draft. At the very least they should end up with a decent starter and one or two solid rotation players, with a chance for much more than that. And perhaps best of all, I’m really looking forward to seeing not only how these new guys play in the summer league, but how the whole team plays next fall — if everyone gets healthy, they should actually play like a complete team and should knock on the door for a playoff spot. While I still want to get a pass-first point guard on the roster, they filled a lot of holes last night and should be much improved next year.

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28
Jun

One Man’s Big Board

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Here’s my big board for the draft tonight. Bottom line is that I would absolutely love to get MKG, am not a fan of Harrison Barnes though I still think he’ll be decent, and think a trade down — say, with Houston for their two best remaining first rounders, or 12 and Lowry — would make a lot of sense if my top 3 are off the board.

  1. Anthony Davis — For all of the obvious reasons
  2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist — A winner, a physical mismatch at a position of need, a plus defender who could be a lock-down you assign to the superstars in this league, and an unselfish player on a roster with plenty of scorers. Ready to contribute immediately.
  3. Thomas Robinson — Hard to go wrong with his size, and he performed great on the national stage. Would become the immediate backup for Lee and maybe make the latter expendable in the mind of management (whether they could trade him though is another story).
  4. Andre Drummond — Simply put, the potential reward is worth the risk. At the very least, he becomes a huge potential trade asset at next year’s deadline as long as he can do anything positive in the meantime.
  5. Bradley Beal — Can’t-miss prospect, but at the easiest position on the court to fill.
  6. Dion Waiters — Pretty much the same as Beal, though I do like the edge he would bring and his ability to drive.
  7. Harrison Barnes — Great measurables, but a surprising lack of athleticism on the court and I don’t trust his motor. While he’s a fairly safe pick to be at least a decent rotation player, he avoided physical contact throughout college so I worry he’ll turn into an exclusive jump-shooter who doesn’t rebound and doesn’t defend. Not exactly what the Warriors need, even if he’d still be an upgrade over Wright and Jefferson.
  8. Tyler Zeller — Totally unsexy pick, but the guy is going to be a backup center in the league for the next 10 years and will be able to contribute right away.
  9. Damian Lillard — Has Monta redux written all over him, though at least he has a bit more of a background as a true PG than Monta did when he came into the league. If the Warriors pick a guard, I really think it needs to be someone who can provide backup minutes at both positions. The kid can still score though which has value.
  10. Kendall Marshall — Best true PG in the draft, and has enough size that he might be able to cover 2′s while Curry is on the court (though Marshall is hardly a defensive wizard). While he’s probably not athletic enough to ever be truly great, I think he’s guaranteed to be a solid backup PG for years to come.
  11. Royce White — All the tools, and this Grantland feature makes me feel that the anxiety disorder worries, while still a factor to consider, aren’t crippling.
  12. Moe Harkless — Great defensive potential, high ceiling, and the right attitude to get there.
  13. Meyers Leonard — 7’1″ and not completely lost on the court. That’s reason enough to take a flier in the middle of the first round.
  14. John Henson — A poor man’s Anthony Davis, if he can actually put on weight he could be something special. But he has a long way to go and will likely have an early career that mirrors Brandon Wright. Would be a better pick as a trade asset than immediate contributor.
  15. Jae Crowder — Would love to snag this guy at 30 based on his advanced stats alone. I wouldn’t mind him in the teens either if the Warriors end up there for their second pick.
  16. Jared Sullinger — Even with the back issues, by the middle of the first round he’s worth taking a chance on.
  17. Terrence Jones — A bit of a tweener as he’s not quite as big as you’d like at PF and it doesn’t sound like he showed much ability to play the 3, but the best of what’s remaining at this point.
  18. Terrence Ross — Prototypical SF size, not the most exciting pick but should at least be a rotation player.
  19. Evan Fournier — Great way to stash a rookie off the roster if they end up with too many, and should be the SF of the future. That future is at least a few years away, though.
  20. Fab Melo — Great size, though at this point we’re definitely getting into potential bust territory.

UPDATE: A second man’s (Jake’s) kinda big board. Got this up late after 3 days of no internet access.

If the Warrior’s don’t trade their pick, I think they should end up with the highest ranked of these 7 guys
1) Anthony Davis
2) MKG
3) Thomas Robinson
4) Bradley Beal
5) Harrison Barnes (I cannot believe I have him this high)
6) Andre Drummond
7) Tyler Zeller
And a few options if the Warriors trade down
Teens: Henson
20′s: Perry Jones III, or Fab Melo or Draymond Green
30: Sullinger if he falls that far or I like Steinmetz’s pick of Fournier out of France even though I know next to nothing about him, but no one else really excites me. I certainly don’t see any Pac-10 or WAC sleepers

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22
Jun

Revisiting the 2012 Predictions

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And I come in with the clean sweep on our 2012 predictions.

As a reminder they were:

Mike:
WC: Lakers
EC: Miami
NBA: Miami
MVP: Laaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaamebron

Xian:
WC – OKC
EC – MIAMI
NBA – MIAMI (UGHH)
MVP – DURANT

Jake:
WC: OKC
EC: Miami
NBA: Miami
MVP: Lebron

As far as our lowly Warrior’s record we were all too optimistic, but I was closer than the rest and was the only one on the right side of Vegas’s 29.5 line.

Nationally, Bill Simmons was the closest to predicting their record, off by one win, and if the Warrior’s hadn’t inexplicably won the game in Minnesota he would have nailed it exactly. BS probably got a little lucky with his prediction because I don’t think he was assuming Curry would miss so much time, but none-the-less he is the winner.

 

Actual: Warrior’s 23-43

Mike: 34-32  .515 winning percentage (42 wins in a normal 82 game season)

Xian: 31-35  .470 winning percentage (38.5 wins in a normal 82 game season)

Jake: 29-37  .439 winning percentage (36 wins in a normal 82 game season)

Bill Simmons 22-44; .333 winning percentage;  27 wins in a normal 82 game season (link to podcast)

 

I didn’t actually put any real money on this so bragging rights and a beer from my fellow W&W writers will have to do.

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6
Jun

Santa Cruz Warriors

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The Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk

Creative Commons Photo by Flickr user TracyElaine

 

I have to admit that I am more excited than I should be that the Warriors D-league team, previously known as the Dakota Wizards, are going to be moving to Santa Cruz, where I currently reside. I even watched and live-tweeted the entire City Council meeting. If you missed the news its okay as the City council approved the funding for the move the same day the Warriors big league club announced that they would be moving to SF in 2017 (Hey that logo did some good, I didn’t have to look up the date).

The Warriors Jr. still need a mascot and maybe a name, unless they stick with The Santa Cruz Warriors.

Some details from the meeting:

  • The facility will be a Cirque du Soleil style tent that holds just approximately 2700 people.
  • Final approval for leasing the parking lot still needs to occur
  • NBA approval was still needed two weeks ago but may have been done by now, but no confirmation that it has
  • Naming rights have already been loosely agreed to, but have not been released yet
  • This is being used as a test run for both the City and the Warriors but the hope is to build a 5000 person permanent structure in the future
  • They will serve Beer!
  • The Big league club will play one pre-season game in Santa Cruz a year if the NBA approves

I will be putting my deposit down for season tickets as soon as ticket package prices are released. Currently the Warriors are taking $50 non-refundable deposits, but it is unclear what packages are going to cost. Single game tickets will be $5-45 with an average price of $15. With 25 home games that should put tickets in a reasonable range.

I am hoping to attend quite a few games, do some live-tweeting and maybe Warriors and Whatever, can become your go to place for Warrior’s D-league news.

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30
May

2012 Lottery Open Thread

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Ping pong project

 Photo by Flickr user Michael Knowles (mknowlesused under a Creative Commons License

The NBA draft lottery is tonight and we get to find out how much David Stern likes the new Warrior’s ownership group. everyone knows the deal, but there is a 73% chance the Warrior’s will pick 1-3 or 7th and keep their pick. If the 27% comes up then they ship their pick off to Utah as part of a couple of trades that netted the Warrior’s a back-up point guard that barely played and the rights to further protect the pick that lead to Klay Thompson. That further protection ended up being unnecessary.

There was talk of the Warrior’s making another deal with Utah to protect this pick no matter what happened in the lottery tonight, but it sounds like those talks have fallen apart. Not really surprised, as I am not sure why Utah would agree to such a deal without heavy compensation. Next year’s pick that could go to Utah will be top 6 protected, but if there is any chance greater than about 5% of the Warrior’s landing in the top 6 then the season was an unmitigated disaster and the whole team needs to be taken Florida to have their faces eaten off by dudes on some new form of LSD. I have to say I am glad the Warrior’s are not trading away the farm to hedge against 27%.  In this game you have to have bigger cajones than that.

TK is predicting that the Warrior’s end up with the #3 pick, a bold prediction since they only have a 4.9% chance this happens. Really though it is typical TK because there are no downsides to this prediction only massive bragging rights if it comes up true. Maybe TK really does think Stern doesn’t bounce the balls with full integrity. This would probably mean drafting MKG and a collective post-coital cigarette by Warrior’s fans.

So what do you think? I am going to go against the odds and say the Warrior’s slip back and lose the pick and this nightmare will finally be over.

Posted by in draft, trade rumors

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27
May

SF Warriors: Our reactions

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Mike:
Assuming they pull this off at the Pier 30/32 location…

I’m excited about the move. The Warriors need a new arena, and San Francisco is really the only option: they can get private backing for a SF arena — which they won’t get in Oakland — and lord knows Oakland can’t afford to chip in any cash (nor SF, for that matter). Their luxury suite revenue will increase by orders of magnitude, and along with more corporate sponsorships they’ll vault into one of the top revenue teams in the league (meaning paying the luxury tax can co-exist with the profitability that Lacob has promised his investors). From a business and team revenue standpoint, I don’t think the move can really be argued.

As for the fan vibe, while it’s sure to be different, the fan mix was going to change regardless if the team ever got good (when ticket prices would surely rise), so in my opinion the only way to preserve the exact same vibe at Oracle is for the team to continue to suck indefinitely. And I don’t think it’s going to automatically become a wine-and-cheese crowd in a new arena — this is a great region for basketball fans, and that location couldn’t be more convenient to Oakland outside of being in the actual city (and as someone who used to live on the Pittsburgh-Bay Point line, the new spot will be a more convenient BART ride than the Coliseum is).

So my bottom line is that while change always means losing some of the things you love, in the overall scheme of things this should lead to a more successful franchise that is still incredibly convenient to the vast majority of the current fan base. It will still be the Bay Area’s team, just in a stunning new location. I can’t wait.

Jake:
I spent 8 years living in Berkeley and Oakland and I grew up in the North Bay as a fan of the East Bay teams so I have a special place in my heart for Oakland. I think I understand its grittiness, its underdog mentality, and in some ways its superiority to that City across the Bay. Granted I have not been to an A’s game in over two seasons so maybe I am a part of the reason as to why they are trying to leave too. But I just cannot give that ownership group any more of my money when it requires an hour and a half drive from Santa Cruz to get there. But enough of this tangent and on to another.

During the 2007 We Believe season I was working one night a week in a bar in San Francisco and living near Lake Merritt. It was not a sports bar, but rather the type of place that B-Diddy (Mojito) and Capt. Jack (Hennessey) might stop into after a game or on a night off. None-the-less when I was working Warriors games were on the TV. Maybe one person in the half empty pre-DJ hour bar would care. Glance up from their 5th drink and look back down into half full glass. While Oakland was believing for a solid month suddenly something changed in SF. It didn’t change until game 80 though. By the playoffs all of sudden everyone in SF was a Warriors fan. Blue and gold everywhere. A full bar 60 minutes before tip-off. All eyes glued to the single TV, beers in hand waiting to erupt.  People walking by on the street would run in at the roar of the crowd and stay. The bus stop outside our door unofficially moved inside under the TV. Half-time was a chaotic cluster-f of pouring. Just a few games into the next season and it went back to one or two people staring blankly at the TV. So yes, this was a long way of saying that SF fans are a bit fair-weather and the atmosphere in the new arena will be different than Oracle. At least until the Warriors are good again(?). And if they start giving players stupid, cute animal nicknames just to sell merch … I will lose my sh*t.

Correct me if I am wrong but the new collective bargaining agreement will increase luxury tax penalties as the years go on, making it less and less of a regular tool for many teams to us. So color me a bit skeptical that the new arena will lead consistent luxury tax spending by the Warriors.

That being said, the arena on Piers 30/32 will be beautiful and amazing. It will be easier for East Bay fans coming over on BART than the China Basin site would have been too. This is not baseball though where the ballpark is so much a part of the experience. Sitting outside with a nice view of the bay and East Bay, during a slow moving game at ATT is part of the experience. Yes, the new arena will be beautiful, but at a basketball game much more time is spent looking at the court, not at your surrounding views. The only time one will really experience the architecture is out on the concorse buying a $15 beer. However, basketball is becoming a stat heavy sport, so they could do a lot of cool tech things to enhance the game experience.  Free WiFi, ordering food to your seats not just the luxury boxes, Twitter based contests, instant voting for players of the game etc (just don’t milk us for $0.99 every time we want to participate, make it part of the whole ticket package). I also have to give the ownership group a lot of credit for privately funding the arena. No way that happens in Oakland, and no way tax dollars should be spent on making a private entity a bunch of money. I am okay with some tax breaks, as surely the City of SF will benefit from the new arena, just look at what the area around ATT was like 20 years ago.

Its just hard not to feel a little punked and sad, but at least the Warriors aren’t headed to Anaheim. I think I will be a little less forgiving if the Warriors aren’t consistent playoff contenders though. Or at the very least they better entertain me with what it will cost for a ticket. Note: David Lee putting up 15 & 15 in a losing effort is not entertaining.

Christian: (in poem form)

 Overwhelming Ovations Occasionally Overpower Opposition

Accept mediocrity, sustain hope

Kinetic underdogs crest anon

Look for logic, laud loyalty

Asshole owners disable Mueli magic

Native soul, not corporate cash

Damn. Davis’ Dunk Delivers enDuring Delight

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11
May

Five Years Ago Today

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Thanks to Kawakami for the reminder.

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8
May

Game 66: Spurs 107, Warriors 101

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Spurs 107

@

Warriors 101

Spurs 27 26 31 23 107
Warriors 29 25 28 19 101
  Net 2 -1 -3 -4 -6
  Season Avg -1 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -3.4
  Compare to Season Avg 3 -0.8 -2.2 -3.3 -2.6
 Warriors Stats
  FG% 3P% FT% FTA Fouls OReb TReb Assists Steals Blocks Turns POTurns PIPaint FBPoints
Game 51.7% 25% 75% 12 14 8 42 25 8 5 15 18 58 23
Season Avg 45.7% 38.8% 77% 18.7 21.4 9.7 39.2 22.3 8 5.5 13.5 16.1 38.1 13
Difference 6% -13.8% -2% -6.7 -7.4 -1.7 2.8 2.7 -0 -0.5 1.5 -0.2 19.9 10
 Net Comparison
  FG% 3P% FT% FTA Fouls OReb TReb Assists Steals Blocks Turns POTurns PIPaint FBPoints
Net Game 8% -4% -7.4% -5 0 -11 -12 -2 1 0 -2 -2 14 0
Net Season Avg 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% -7.4 -4.8 -3.5 -6.7 -0.6 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.2 -5 -1.3
Net Difference 7.6% -6.3% -9.7% 2.4 4.8 -7.5 -5.3 -1.4 0.6 -0.5 -2.9 -2.2 19 1.3

Better late than never!

San Antonio Spurs
STARTERS MIN FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB DREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF +/- PTS
Boris Diaw, PF 20 2-2 1-1 0-0 0 7 7 4 0 0 3 2 +10 5
James Anderson, SG 40 7-17 1-5 4-5 5 2 7 3 1 1 3 2 +17 19
DeJuan Blair, F 39 10-19 0-0 2-2 3 10 13 1 1 0 0 3 +8 22
Daniel Green, G 8 2-3 2-3 0-0 0 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 +4 6
Patrick Mills, PG 43 14-25 4-10 2-2 2 3 5 12 1 1 4 1 +10 34
BENCH MIN FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB DREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF +/- PTS
Matt Bonner, PF 13 2-5 1-3 0-0 1 2 3 2 0 1 0 1 -8 5
Derrick Byars, SF 33 2-9 0-6 4-4 4 4 8 1 2 0 0 2 -5 8
Tiago Splitter, C 7 1-4 0-0 2-2 2 3 5 0 0 0 0 1 -2 4
Cory Joseph, G 38 2-12 0-3 0-2 2 3 5 4 1 0 2 1 -4 4
Stephen Jackson, SG DNP COACH’S DECISION
Gary Neal, PG DNP LEFT SHOULDER STINGER
Kawhi Leonard, SF DNP COACH’S DECISION
TOTALS FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB DREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
42-96 9-31 14-17 19 35 54 27 7 5 13 14 107
43.8% 29.0% 82.4%
Fast break points:   23
Points in the paint:   44
Team TO ( points off ):   13 (16)
+/- denotes team’s net points while the player is on the court.
Golden State Warriors
STARTERS MIN FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB DREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF +/- PTS
Chris Wright, F 46 11-14 0-0 3-4 1 7 8 0 1 2 1 1 -2 25
Jeremy Tyler, F 44 7-19 0-1 2-3 5 4 9 0 1 1 5 1 -11 16
Mickell Gladness, C 39 7-10 0-0 0-0 2 7 9 2 0 1 0 1 -8 14
Charles Jenkins, G 26 8-13 0-0 0-0 0 3 3 7 3 0 0 4 +1 16
Klay Thompson, G 29 6-16 2-7 3-4 0 5 5 6 0 0 3 3 -3 17
BENCH MIN FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB DREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF +/- PTS
Mikki Moore, C 29 1-4 0-0 0-0 0 5 5 2 1 1 0 3 -3 2
Dominic McGuire, SF 27 5-11 0-0 1-1 0 3 3 8 2 0 6 1 -4 11
Richard Jefferson, SF DNP COACH’S DECISION
David Lee, PF DNP ABDOMINAL SURGERY
Nate Robinson, PG DNP COACH’S DECISION
Andris Biedrins, C DNP MILD CONCUSSION
Dorell Wright, SF DNP COACH’S DECISION
Brandon Rush, SG DNP COACH’S DECISION
TOTALS FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB DREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
45-87 2-8 9-12 8 34 42 25 8 5 15 14 101
51.7% 25.0% 75.0%
Fast break points:   23
Points in the paint:   58
Team TO ( points off ):   16 (18)
+/- denotes team’s net points while the player is on the court.

Flagrant Fouls: None
Technical Fouls: PLAYERS: None – TEAMS (def3sec): SANANTONIO (1) – COACHES: None
Officials: Tre Maddox , Ron Garretson , Bennie Adams
Attendance: 18,124
Time of Game: 02:09

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26
Apr

Preview: Spurs at Warriors

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San Antonio
Spurs

@

Golden State
Warriors

Oracle Arena
7:30pm | TNT

Official Game Preview

2011-12 Meetings
Warriors 95
Spurs 101
 
Spurs 120
Warriors 99
 
Spurs 107
Warriors 101
 

The season comes to a merciful close tonight. The Spurs have nothing to play for, but even playing scrubs they should have no trouble helping the Warriors get the loss they so desperately need. Here’s to one more loss — and then we get to pump ourselves up for tomorrow’s coin flip!

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