Posts Tagged ‘ greg oden ’

7
9
Jan

Is Brandan Wright the Alex Smith of the Warriors?

I couldn't resist using this photo

Interesting article by Marcus Thompson II in the Mercury News today on Brandan Wright and his future with the team. It goes through the usual litany of injury excuses, and kinda skates over the fact that Wright has always been a defensive and rebounding disaster when he’s made it onto the court.

While Wright has certainly been a disappointment, what’s maddening is that he’s always remained on the verge of being a serviceable player (unlike, say, Patrick O’Brien). And at times — in particular last year’s preseason before his second shoulder separation — it seemed like we were finally going to see the potential (utilizing his length and explosiveness) that made him such a high pick coming out of UNC after his freshman year.

But the fact remains that we haven’t, and this year has been perhaps the most disappointing of all as he was felled with a mysterious back injury for over a month and now can’t even crack the rotation. Maybe he’ll one day put it all together and become a positive contributor on the court, but at this point it seems incredibly unlikely that Oakland will be where that happens.

And in that way, he sort of reminds me of Alex Smith. A player with all the potential in the world who, despite numerous chances, could never put it all together when it mattered for the team that drafted him. Sure, you can legitimately blame coaching, and injuries were definitely a factor, but when it comes to the bottom line performance neither player lived up to his draft position.

So, like with Alex Smith, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wright one day put it all together and become a solid contributor (both are young and play a position of huge importance in their respective sports, and they may finally have the experience to put it all together). But at this point this turning of the corner won’t be happening with their original teams, so in Wright’s case I just hope the Warriors can get something for him before he inevitably leaves at the end of the year. Because otherwise, based on the team’s history of former players blowing up elsewhere, it’s going to be annoying as hell when Wright inevitably comes into Oracle next year and throws up a career high against the dubs…

Postscript: Another comparison for Wright could be Greg Oden — a player who, if he ultimately flourishes, will do so in another uniform than the team that drafted him. Though in Oden’s case it’s easy to put the blame squarely on the injuries, as more “fixable” problems like coaching and attitude didn’t interfere as much. So I’ll stick with the Smith comparison.

2
29
Dec

Injuries and the Draft

My knee surgery
Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus has Festivus grievances. Mainly that NBA GMs are too cautious and worry too much about injuries when it comes to the Draft. The discussion is brought about by Brandon Roy’s knee problems and Kevin McHale’s declaration that Minnesota traded Roy for Foye because they knew Roy’s knees would eventually give out. Roy had surgery on both knees before he was drafted. I am sure the money Minnesota saved by paying the 7th pick rather than the 6th pick had nothing to do with it.

As it turned out, Roy is now dealing with those very knee problems, but only after a highly productive start to his NBA career. Here are the WARP totals through 2009-10 of everyone drafted in the 2006 lottery:

Pk   Tm    Player              WARP

1    TOR   Andrea Bargnani      5.9
2    CHI   LaMarcus Aldridge   18.6
3    CHA   Adam Morrison      - 8.0
4    POR   Tyrus Thomas        11.4
5    ATL   Shelden Williams     1.3
6    MIN   Brandon Roy         37.9
7    BOS   Randy Foye           5.1
8    HOU   Rudy Gay            11.1
9    GSW   Patrick O’Bryant   - 0.5
10   SEA   Mouhamed Sene        0.2
11   ORL   J.J. Redick          5.2
12   NOK   Hilton Armstrong   - 3.5
13   PHI   Thabo Sefolosha      0.9
14   UTA   Ronnie Brewer        9.6

Of the 14 lottery picks, how many of them are likely to match Roy’s current WARP total? LaMarcus Aldridge is likely to get there, and Rudy Gay, who is still young and already has put up 3.0 WARP this year, has a pretty good shot. Tyrus Thomas might do so if he figures things out. And that’s it. So even if we conservatively assume that Roy is entirely finished as an NBA player of value, he is still likely to be at worst the fourth-best player in the lottery. Suffice it to say that Foye, who can’t even get off the bench for one of the league’s worst teams, is not going to make it.

Even in hindsight it is easy to say that picking Roy was the right call for Portland, especially over Foye. As Kevin points out, even if Roy never plays another NBA game he is a lock to be the 4th best player in the 2006 lottery. IF HE NEVER PLAYS AGAIN. With rookie salaries the financial hit of an injury prone player is much less that that of a veteran, so at worst Portland’s mistake was extending Roy, but not drafting him.

On the other side of the coin is Roy’s team mate, Greg Oden. Was Pritchard more of a gambler than the other NBA GMs? Was Oden’s injury easier to see coming? I certainly think that on the scale of injuries to worry about the knees of a “Big Man” are far more worrisome than the knees of a back court player. The guard may rely on speed and with shaky knees be slowed down, but with a slimmer body mass he may just be slowed down rather than stopped. A guard who has lost a step still has something to offer where as an already slow center with bad knees doesn’t have much.

And POB was only the third worst lottery pick of 2006! Good job Warriors.

Photo by Flickr user Bekathwia used under a CC license. Much more intimate ones where that came from.

Via MY

0
18
Dec

Preview: Warriors at Trail Blazers

Golden State
Warriors

@

Portland
Trailblazers

Rose Garden
7:00pm | CSNBA

Official Game Preview

2010-11 Meetings
December 18, 2010 • Recap
Warriors 95
Trailblazers 96
 
December 25, 2010 • Recap
Trailblazers 102
Warriors 109
 
April 5, 2011 • Recap
Warriors 108
Trailblazers 87
 
April 13, 2011 • Recap
Trailblazers 86
Warriors 110
 

The Warriors try to make it two in a row when the take on the Blazers in Portland. No Curry and no Biedrins tonight, so we should get an extended look at Udoh and maybe some Lee at center. The Blazers have their own injury problems, as Roy has been shut down for a few games and Oden is obviously out for the year. The Blazers have been scuffling so a win is there for the taking tonight — let’s see if the dubs can take advantage.

0
16
Oct

Preview: Warriors at Trail Blazers

Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers | 7 p.m. | No TV/radio

With Amundson and Carney finally ready for action, this game is all about figuring out our bench. What to watch for:

  • Where’s the beef. Is Amundson the “beef” we need to spell Biedrins at the 5 and provide tough D on the opponent’s center? If he’s truly healthy, I hope we’ll see him getting at least a few minutes defending Oden.
  • Who’s Rodney Carney? I admit to knowing next to nothing about this guy. According to Wages of Wins, he’s become a more efficient player over the years and the best place for him to make his mark is clearly defense. But if he starts shooting a ton of threes, then we may have a problem.
  • Wither Wright? The reports are that Brandon Wright’s DNP-CD in the last game was for not showing up in practice. Let’s hope he’s made some strides in the days following, as he’s going to run out of opportunities to show what he can do if he can’t even earn himself some preseason playing time.
  • The continuing battle for #15. Tonight will give us another data point in the Jeff Adrien vs. Aaron Miles battle for the final roster spot. Amundson’s return will likely have an impact on how necessary Adrien is, so if Miles can show he can actually dish the ball he could make some major strides tonight.